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9/14 to 9/16 Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

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(Getty)

The Yankees have a 1.5 game lead in the race for home field in the Wild Card game with 16 games to play. It’s effectively a 2.5 game lead, in fairness, as they do hold the tiebreaker over the Oakland A’s. As they enter their last homestand of the season, this series feels rather important – and not just because they went 4-5 on their last road trip. The Yankees are a better team at home, and having that edge in a win or go home game is huge.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees were rude hosts back in August, sweeping the Blue Jays in a three-game set, and outscoring them 28-13. Some notes from the series:

  • Game one was a rain-shortened affair, with the Yankees picking up the win due to some timely home runs by Neil Walker and Giancarlo Stanton and strong relief efforts from Chad Green and David Robertson. Due to weird scoring quirks, Robertson actually picked up the save despite not recording the last out of the game (it was called in the bottom of the 7th).
  • Miguel Andujar had a big series, going 6-for-13 with 2 doubles, a home run, and 8 RBI.
  • Didi Gregorius suffered his heel injury in the third and final game of the series, but he’s back now and that’s all that matters … right?

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Brandon Drury (hand), Marcus Stroman (blister), and Troy Tulowitzki (feet) are done for the season; Russell Martin is on paternity leave, but is expected back this weekend.

Their Story So Far

The Blue Jays are 65-81 with a -105 run differential, which put them 22nd and 24th in the majors, respectively. Since these teams last played they made headlines for confirming that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – who hit over .400 at Double-A and .336/.414/.564 in 30 games at Triple-A – would not get the call to the show for a variety of inane reasons; it’ll be interesting to see what, if anything, comes of these service time debacles. They also dealt Curtis Granderson to the Brewers, and Josh Donaldson to the Indians for a non-prospect in a trade that has made many teams quite angry.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager John Gibbons has been mixing and matching his lineups quite a bit over the last few weeks, due to both the trade of Granderson and expanded rosters. The most common lineup as of late is something like this:

  1. Billy McKinney, LF – .324/.393/.568, 4 HR, 0 SB, 163 OPS+
  2. Lourdes Gurriel, SS – .284/.317/.436, 11 HR, 2 SB, 107 OPS+
  3. Justin Smoak, 1B – .247/.355/.466, 24 HR, 0 SB, 126 OPS+
  4. Kendrys Morales, DH – .256/.339/.456, 21 HR, 2 SB, 119 OPS+
  5. Randal Grichuk, RF – .245/.302/.481, 21 HR, 3 SB, 113 OPS+
  6. Kevin Pillar, CF – .245/.274/.408, 12 HR, 14 SB, 86 OPS+
  7. Yangervis Solarte, 2B – .234/.287/.394, 17 HR, 1 SB, 87 OPS+
  8. Aledmys Diaz, 3B – .254/.290/.445, 17 HR, 3 SB, 101 OPS+
  9. Danny Jansen, C – .254/.357/.407, 1 HR, 0 SB, 113 OPS+

Rookie and 80-grade name Rowdy Tellez (249 OPS+ in 23 PA) should see time at 1B and/or DH. Russell Martin (87 OPS+), Devon Travis (83 OPS+), and Teoscar Hernandez (110 OPS+) figure to play, as well.

Reid-Foley. (Brian Davidson/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Marco Estrada

Estrada is wrapping up the worst season of his career. He’s currently sitting on a 5.32 ERA (79 ERA+) in 130.1 IP with career-worst home run and strikeout rates. The Yankees have seen Estrada three times this year, scoring 9 runs in 18 innings; though, one of those starts was a one-run, 6 IP effort.

Last Outing (vs. CLE on 9/7) – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K

Saturday (4:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Sean Reid-Foley

This will be the fifth start of Reid-Foley’s career, and his second against the Yankees. His first time in the Bronx didn’t go too well (for him, at least), as he allowed 8 runs (6 earned) in 4.1 IP. Gregorius, Stanton, and Andujar all took him deep. Reid-Foley did follow that up with a gem against the hapless Marlins, though, pitching to the following line: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 10 K.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 9/8) – 4.2 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 5 BB, 3 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Lance Lynn vs. LHP Thomas Pannone

Rare is the occasion when I write-up a post like this and come across a completely unfamiliar name, but here we are. Pannone is a 24-year-old rookie southpaw who debuted back on August 10, and has served as the Blue Jays swingman since then. He actually pitched against the Yankees back on August 19, holding them scoreless for 1.1 innings. Pannone opened this season with an 80-game PED suspension (which he denied – successfully – on a polygraph test, for whatever that’s worth), and only made 10 appearances in the minors before being called-up to the show.

Pannone is a three-pitch junkballer, featuring a high-80s four-seamer, a low-80s change-up, and a low-70s curve. From that description, he kind of sounds like a left-handed version of Estrada.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 9/9) – 6.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 2 K

The Bullpen

Ken Giles (5.32 ERA) and old friend Tyler Clippard (3.68 ERA) share the closing duties, and Ryan Tepera (3.71 ERA) is also in the high-leverage outs mix. Rookies Jose Fernandez (1.50 ERA in 6.0 IP) and Tim Mayza (3.69 ERA) have seen heavy duty this month, as well. It’s not a great bullpen – which is to be expected, considering their trade deadline – but it’s not awful.

Who (Or What) To Watch

I’m interested in a longer look at Billy McKinney, and Rowdy Tellez has built-up a small cult-like following in his few weeks in the majors. Beyond that, the Blue Jays aren’t a terribly interesting team. Most of the focus on this series will be on the Yankees ability to hold the line.

9/10 to 9/12 Series Preview: Minnesota Twins

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(Hannah Foslien/Getty)

The Yankees took two out of three from the Mariners this weekend, on the strength of terrific starting pitching and a bit of timely hitting. They remain just 2.5 games up for home-field advantage in the Wild Card game, though, as the A’s swept through the Rangers. The A’s face the Orioles this week, so it’s tough to see them slowing down – and that means the Yankees need to take care of business against the Twins.

The Last Time They Met

These teams played a four-game set back in late April, and it was just as the Yankees were hitting their stride – and the Yankees took all four games by a combined score of 33-11. Some notes from the series:

  • The Yankees won the first game 14-1, with every starter reaching base at least once. Didi Gregorius (via grand slam) and Tyler Austin (now on the Twins) both had four RBI, and Giancarlo Stanton went 4-for-4. The team went 5-for-11 with RISP, to boot.
  • Gregorius had a fairly absurd series, going 7-for-16 with 3 home runs and 9 RBI. By the time Minnesota left town he was hitting .354/.452/.793 on the season.
  • Aaron Judge reached base at least twice in every game, and went 5-for-12 with two doubles, a home run, and six walks overall.
  • Gary Sanchez did this in the final game:

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Jason Castro, Adalberto Mejia, Logan Morrison, and Ervin Santana are all done for the season. Tyler Austin (back tightness) and Miguel Sano (left leg contusion) are both day-to-day.

Their Story So Far

The Twins are 65-77 with a -70 run differential, which is good for second place in the awful AL Central. They have the starkest home-field advantage in baseball, sitting at 41-30 with a +8 run differential at home and 24-47 with a -78 run differential on the road. Unfortunately, they’re hosting the Yankees.

After overachieving a bit last year, the Twins were back to sellers in 2018. They dealt Eduardo Escobar, Ryan Pressly, Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, and Brian Dozier heading into the July 31 trade deadline, and sent Fernando Rodney and Bobby Wilson packing in August. The returns in these deals were generally quantity over quality, per most outlets, but the Twins still have some tantalizing young talent.

One of those talented youngsters is Byron Buxton, who has been making headlines for being shut-down by the Twins in what is clearly service time manipulation. He wasn’t good when he played in the majors this year (his 4 OPS+ is a testament to that), but he was brilliant last year and is still just 24. The front office has used the “he’s not fully healthy” and “there’s no place for him to play” arguments; the former may hold water (Buxton denies it), but the latter is tough to swallow when folk like Robbie Grossman and Johnny Field are playing in the outfield.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Paul Molitor has used a slew of different lineups this year, which isn’t terribly surprising given the roster’s talent level, trades, and injuries. Predicting what they’ll trot out there on any given night is anyone’s guess – and I’m anyone, I suppose.

  1. Joe Mauer, 1B – .272/.343/.369, 5 HR, 0 SB, 94 OPS+
  2. Jorge Polanco, SS – .270/.326/.401, 4 HR, 4 SB, 97 OPS+
  3. Eddie Rosario, DH – .289/.326/.482, 23 HR, 8 SB, 116 OPS+
  4. Logan Forsythe, 2B – .236/.314/.304, 2 HR, 3 SB, 69 OPS+
  5. Jake Cave, CF – .257/.307/.476, 10 HR, 1 SB, 109 OPS+
  6. Mitch Garver, C – .260/.331/.406, 7 HR, 0 SB, 99 OPS+
  7. Max Kepler, RF – .226/.320/.414, 18 HR, 3 SB, 98 OPS+
  8. Robbie Grossman, LF – .261/.348/.368, 4 HR, 0 SB, 96 OPS+
  9. Ehire Adrianza, 3B – .249/.302/.374, 6 HR, 4 SB, 83 OPS+

Willians Astudillo (139 OPS+ in 38 PA) will see some time at catcher, and Tyler Austin (108 OPS+) and Miguel Sano (85 OPS+) should get into the starting lineup if they’re healthy.

(Robert H. Levey/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (8:10 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

Gibson has had a mini-breakout this year at the age of 30, posting career-bests in ERA (3.74), ERA+ (118), strikeouts (158), and strikeout rate (22.0%). He has shown flashes of competence throughout his career, and may well have turned the corner via consolidation this year.

Gibson is a legitimate five-pitch guy, with a low-to-mid 90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, a mid-80s slider, and a low-80s curve. He gets a lot of whiffs on the slider and curve when they’re right.

Last outing (vs. HOU on 9/3) – 7.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 5 K

Tuesday (8:10 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Kohl Stewart

The fourth overall pick in the 2013 draft, Stewart made his big-league debut on August 12. His climb through the minors was slow and steady, and he did not reach Triple-A until his fifth professional season. Some of that is due to the Twins approach to pitchers, but his unspectacular performance once he reached Double-A certainly didn’t help. Stewart’s a former top-50 prospect, though, and his pedigree still means something as he’s still a month shy of his 24th birthday.

Stewart’s another five-pitch guy, with a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a high-80s change-up, a mid-80s slider, and a high-70s curveball. His stuff’s not too different from Gibson’s, but he hasn’t shown the ability to get whiffs just yet.

Last outing (vs. HOU on 9/4) – 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K

Wednesday (8:10 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Jake Odorizzi

The Yankees beat-up on Odorizzi back on April 23, scoring five runs in 4.2 innings, and putting eight runners on-base. The 28-year-old has had a somewhat rough year, pitching to a 4.57 ERA (96 ERA+) in 147.2 IP with the worst full-season WAR (1.2) of his career.

Last outing (vs. HOU on 9/5) – 4.2 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 4 K

The Bullpen

Trevor Hildenberger inherited the closer mantle when Rodney was dealt, and he’s five-for-five in save opportunities with a 2.61 ERA since then. His overall numbers are solid, with a 4.21 ERA (105 ERA+) and 21.5% strikeouts in 66.1 IP. Taylor Rogers (3.02 ERA and 29.3 K%) is their best hand out there otherwise, with Trevor May (1.65 ERA and 36.4 K% in limited duty out of the bullpen) and the disappointing Addison Reed (4.70 ERA) chipping in from the 6th inning onward.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Willians Astudillo is kind of the position player version of Bartolo Colon, and is generously listed at 5’9″ and 225 pounds. He swings at everything (0.0 BB% and 5.3 K% in the majors, 3.3% and 4.6% in Triple-A), and is fun to watch at the plate and in the field.

9/7 to 9/9 Series Preview: Seattle Mariners

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(Stephen Brashear/Getty)

The Yankees opened up their West Coast trip in disappointing fashion, dropping two out of three to the Oakland A’s. And that 1-2 record doesn’t come close to capturing just how frustrating the series was. With their Wild Card home-field advantage lead now sitting at 3.5 games, they’ll head up the coast to face the sinking Mariners.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees were rude hosts to the Mariners back in June, earning a three-game sweep by a combined score of 18-10. Some notes:

  • Domingo German was excellent in the first game, tossing 7 innings and allowing just two hits and two runs (one earned), while striking out 9.
  • Clint Frazier – who turned 24 yesterday – started all three games of the series. He went 4-for-11 with a double and three runs scored. Bringing this up makes me both happy and sad.
  • Aaron Judge, Miguel Andujar, and Giancarlo Stanton were a triple-headed monster in the series, going a combined 12-for-36 with two doubles, five home runs, and 11 RBI.
  • The Yankees hit eight home runs overall in the series, with Andujar (2), Stanton (2), Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, and Judge chipping in.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Juan Nicasio (knee surgery), David Phelps (Tommy John surgery), and Sam Tuivailala (Achilles tendon surgery) are all out for the year. Marco Gonzalez is currently on the DL with a neck injury, and it’s questionable whether he’ll be back in time for this series.

Their Story So Far

The Mariners are 78-62 with a -47 run differential, and are currently 5.5 GB in the Wild Card race. That -47 run differential is by far the worst among teams with a .500 or better record (the Rockies are next-worst at -8), and their Pythagorean record is 65-75 – so they may’ve overachieved a bit on the season. Regression to the mean is in full-swing, though, as the Mariners have went 32-36 since they landed in the Bronx back in June.

There isn’t one clear-cut reason for the Mariners backslide. Rather, it’s a combination of injuries, poor performance (and poorly timed poor performances), and the simple fact that they were playing above their talent level for a time. The fact that they’ve literally descended into clubhouse chaos probably doesn’t help, either.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Scott Servais has continued to have a mostly-steady hand on the lineup card, with most of the movement being from position to position (e.g., Robinson Cano has played 1B, 2B, and 3B and Dee Gordon has played 2B, SS, and CF). We’ll probably see something like this:

  1. Mitch Haniger, RF – .279/.365/.490, 24 HR, 7 SB, 138 OPS+
  2. Jean Segura, SS – .314/.345/.430, 8 HR, 20 SB, 117 OPS+
  3. Robinson Cano, 2B – .286/.369/.445, 7 HR, 0 SB, 128 OPS+
  4. Nelson Cruz, DH – .267/.353/.538, 34 HR, 1 SB, 146 OPS+
  5. Denard Span, LF – .277/.353/.449, 11 HR, 8 SB, 123 OPS+
  6. Ryon Healy, 1B – .249/.283/.445, 24 HR, 0 SB, 100 OPS+
  7. Kyle Seager, 3B – .216/.267/.393, 20 HR, 2 SB, 83 OPS+
  8. Mike Zunino, C – .188/.246/.395, 18 HR, 0 SB, 76 OPS+
  9. Dee Gordon, CF – .272/.293/.337, 2 HR, 30 SB, 77 OPS+

Ben Gamel (110 OPS+) and Cameron Maybin (86 OPS+) will probably see some time in the outfield; David Freitas (66 OPS+) is the back-up catcher.

Edwin Diaz donning his Players Weekend uniform. (Norm Hall/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (10:10 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP James Paxton

Paxton started against the Yankees back on June 21, and didn’t fare too well, pitching to the following line – 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 9 K. He has had two subsequent stints on the DL, the first coming in July due to back soreness, and the second in August, which was the result of being hit with a line-drive in his left arm. He’s otherwise been good, putting up a 3.74 ERA (107 ERA+) and 11.6 K/9 in 144.1 IP.

Last outing (vs. OAK on 9/1) – 5.0 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 10 K

Saturday (9:10 PM EST): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Felix Hernandez

Hernandez was sent to the bullpen a month ago, following a 6 IP, 11 R effort on August 7. That stint lasted exactly one appearance, as he relieved Paxton following the aforementioned comebacker, tossed 5.2 solid IP, and returned to the rotation the following week. Things haven’t gotten much better for Hernandez, though, as he still has a career-worst 5.55 ERA (72 ERA+) in 147.2 IP.

Last outing (vs. OAK on 9/1) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K

Sunday (4:00 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Erasmo Ramirez

Ramirez has been an up-and-down guy for the last several years, and he has done well in that role. He’s been in the rotation since mid-August due to injuries (first to Paxton, then to Gonzalez), and he’s performed admirably through five starts (24.1 IP, 24 H, 6 BB, 19 K, 3.70 ERA). There’s a non-zero chance that Gonzalez will be activated in time for this start, but, as of now, it’s Ramirez’s turn.

The 28-year-old is a three or five pitch guy, depending on how you look at it. He throws three fastballs (a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, and a high-80s cutter), a low-80s slider, and a low-80s change-up.

Last outing (vs. BAL) – 5.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K

The Bullpen

Edwin Diaz is in the midst of a ridiculous season. He currently boasts a 1.87 ERA (215 ERA+), 1.34 FIP, 15.6 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9, and he’s 53-for-57 in save opportunities. He leads all relievers in WAR, and he’s second in WPA (behind the A’s Blake Treinen) … and he’s still just 24. He’s a legitimate stud.

Chasen Bradford (3.33 ERA in 48.2 IP), James Pazos (3.02 ERA in 41.2 IP), and Alex Colome (3.05 ERA with the Mariners) are the primary high-leverage options behind Diaz, and they’ve all been good thus far. Things are a bit dicey after that, though.

Who (Or What) To Watch

It’s always a pleasure to see Robinson Cano on the field, even with his PED-related fall from grace. And Edwin Diaz has a very outside shot at matching Francisco Rodriguez’s single-season saves record of 62.

9/3 to 9/5 Series Preview: Oakland Athletics

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Khris Davis and Bob Melvin (Stephen Lam/Getty Images)

In a likely playoff preview, the Yankees travel to the Bay Area for a three-game set with the current WC2 leader, the Oakland Athletics.

The Last Time They Met

It’s been more than three months since the Yankees took two of three from Oakland at Yankee Stadium on May 11-13.

  • The A’s took the opener with four homers, blitzing Sonny Gray and scoring five runs off David Hale and David Robertson combined.
  • The Yankees took Game 2 in 11 innings on a Neil Walker walk-off single. Six no-hit innings from the bullpen did the job while Brett Gardner and Gary Sanchez combined for the most exciting defensive play of the season.
  • Luis Severino topped Brett Anderson in the rubber game with Giancarlo Stanton putting up a four-hit game, which included a homer.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

Starters Sean Manaea and Brett Anderson are both on the disabled list with Manaea likely out for the year. Fellow pitchers Jharel Cotton, Paul Blackburn, Daniel Gossett, Kendall Graveman and Andrew Triggs are also out with only Blackburn and Triggs potentially returning this season.

CF Jake Smolinski is on the 60-day DL with a blood clot.

Their Story So Far

The surprise team of the American League sits at 82-56, 4.5 games behind the Yankees for the first Wild Card, 5.5 games up on the Mariners for the second spot and two games back of the Astros in the AL West. Since falling to 28-28 on May 30, they’ve gone 54-28. They’re 41-28 at home.

So many good players to mention. Blake Treinen’s sinker is unfair. Matt Olson and Khris Davis have power for days with Davis leading the AL in homers with 40. Matt Chapman is the best fielding third baseman in the game and is a stealth MVP candidate. Their main weakness is rotation depth with their best starter out and little depth with which to begin.

Lineup We Might See

Here’s their most recent lineup against a lefty pitcher as the Yankees will toss out southpaws in two of three games. Olson (.240/.324/.444, 110 wRC+) will certainly start against a righty and may even start a game at first against Sabathia or Happ.

1. SS Marcus Semien (.261/.324/.386, 96 wRC+)
2. 3B Matt Chapman (.280/.364/.524, 143 wRC+)
3. 2B Jed Lowrie (.274/.359/.470, 129 wRC+)
4. DH Khris Davis (.246/.324/.543, 132 wRC+)
5. RF Stephen Piscotty (.262/.318/.472, 115 wRC+)
6. LF Chad Pinder (.262/.339/.430, 113 wRC+)
7. CF Ramon Laureano (.304/.380/.493, 141 wRC+)
8. 1B Matt Canha (.246/.323/.437, 107 wRC+)
9. C Jonathan Lucroy (.240/.292/.324, 70 wRC+)

I’m a big Cahill fan. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (4:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Trevor Cahill
Returning to where it all began, Trevor Cahill has found success in his second stint with the Athletics in a way that has eluded him in recent seasons. His home run and walk rates have gone down significantly, leading to a 3.60 ERA and 3.27 FIP as he’s been one of Athletics’ best starters.

Cahill missed a good chunk of time this season with an Achilles injury and is often injured. If healthy, he’s probably the best bet to start the Wild Card Game with Manaea out.

The 30-year-old righty is throwing his low-90s fastball less than ever, using it at a 41.3 percent clip. Instead, he’s turned more to his high-80s slider while still working in his low-80s changeup and curveball.

Last Outing (@ HOU on Aug. 29) – 3.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R (3 ER), 6 BB, 2 K

Tuesday (10:05 PM ET): LHP J.A. Happ vs. TBD
Frankie Montas is on turn to start Tuesday and can be called up despite being optioned near the end of August because Triple-A Nashville’s season ends Monday. However, after he gave up six runs to the Mariners, Bob Melvin may choose to bullpen this game.

As you can read about below, this team is stacked in the bullpen. Montas can give the team length while Melvin still relies upon a cacophony of arms thanks to September call-ups.

Wednesday (10:05 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Mike Fiers
FIREWORKS TIME!!! Fiers, who was with the Tigers earlier in the season, came to the A’s thanks to a waiver deal. As you may remember, he has an extensive history with Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton wears his face mask because Fiers hit him in the face in 2014 (Here’s the video for the non-squeamish). Fiers hit Stanton again in June before Stanton homered off the righty and stared him down.

Fiers has been quite good, particularly because he’s been able to solve him homer problem pitching in larger stadiums like the Coliseum and Comerica. He fired off five straight quality starts shortly before the trade and had been dynamite for the Athletics until his last start, when his homer problem reared its ugly head.

Fiers’ fastball sits in the high 80s and he throws it only a third of the time. Otherwise, he goes to his cutter, changeup, curveball or sinker, each between 13 and 19 percent. Definitely willing to throw just about anything.

Last Outing (vs. SEA on Aug. 31) – 3.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 3 HR

The Bullpen

This bullpen is kinda bonkers. Treinen is the closer and isn’t afraid to go multiple innings if need be, going four outs on Sunday. He has a 0.92 ERA with a 1.75 FIP and has 91 strikeouts in 68 1/3 innings. Yowza.

Setting him up is rookie righty Lou Trivino (2.18 ERA/3.59 FIP in 66 innings), former Mets closer Jeurys Familia (2.77/2.39 in 61 2/3) and Fernando Rodney (2.60/3.48 in 55 1/3). Ryan Buchter is the go-to lefty in the pen. Yusmeiro Petit is the multi-inning reliever that can put out any fire. Further down in the pen are Emilio Pagan, lefty Daniel Coulombe and former Yankee Shawn Kelley.

This is one of the few teams that can match the Bombers arm-for-arm in relief. However, they’ve had to use their bullpen plenty recently with short starts and bullpen games.

Yankees Connection

Dustin Fowler was one of three players in the Sonny Gray deal last season while Jorge Mateo, who was also in the deal, is on the 40-man roster but not the active roster. Kelley was a Yankee in 2013-14.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

  • Wild Card Game preview. It’s that simple. If the Yankees win two of three, they’ll basically have homefield for that game. Lose two of three or suffer a sweep and the chance they have to travel for the game becomes a real fear.
  • Fiers vs. Stanton. Ding. Ding.

8/30 to 9/2 Series Preview: Detroit Tigers

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If the Tigers have two good hitters, here they are. (Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

Four more games remain in the Yankees’ penultimate homestand and it’s another of the AL Central’s rebuilding squads. Next up: the Detroit Tigers.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees made a brief stop in Detroit for a doubleheader on June 4, splitting the two games after losing the nightcap.

  • Luis Severino dominated the first game, allowing just two runs (one earned) over eight innings while striking out 10. He allowed just five baserunners.
  • Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird and Austin Romine all homered to knock out Drew VerHagen early in Game 1.
  • Domingo German couldn’t cut it in Game 2 and the Yankees’ bats came up short in a 4-2 loss. Giancarlo Stanton was hit by Mike Fiers, who has some history with the slugger, leading to this homer and reaction from Stanton.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that twin bill.

Injury Report

Miguel Cabrera is out for the year after left biceps surgery while backup John Hicks is also gone for the year. Shortstop Jose Iglesias underwent an MRI in New York on Thursday after suffering a lower abdominal strain and was placed on the 10-day disabled list.

On the pitching side, lefty Blaine Hardy is out with elbow tendinitis while Daniel Norris is on the mend from left groin surgery and could pitch in this series.

Their Story So Far

The Tigers stand at 53-80, tied with the White Sox for the third worst record in the American League and third place in the AL Central. Detroit has lost five straight games, all coming against the similarly putrid Royals and Southsiders. Their 19-46 road record is the worse only than the Orioles in all of baseball.

On the personnel side, a few starters have put up respectable numbers while their offense has been quite poor. The team dealt Mike Fiers and Leonys Martin (get well soon!) at the deadline.

Lineup We Might See

1. 3B Jeimer Candelario (.227/.315/.400, 94 wRC+)
2. 2B Niko Goodrum (.225/.298/.412, 90 wRC+)
3. RF Nicholas Castellanos (.290/.344/.487, 123 wRC+)
4. DH Victor Martinez (.248/.298/.337, 69 wRC+)
5. 1B Jim Adduci (.284/.316/.413, 96 wRC+)
6. LF Mikie Mahtook (.220/.292/.360, 75 wRC+)
7. C James McCann (.221/.269/.317, 57 wRC+)
8. CF JaCoby Jones (.203/.259/.363, 65 wRC+)
9. SS Ronny Rodriguez (.205/.248/.291, 43 wRC+)

I’m guessing Goodrum slides into Iglesias’ spot in the lineup and Rodriguez moves onto shortstop. The Tigers have just a three-man bench right now even after adding Dawel Lugo to the active roster in place of Iglesias. That will change Saturday with callups.

Matthew Boyd makes a lot of weird pitching faces. (Leon Halip/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (7:05 PM ET): LHP J.A. Happ vs. LHP Francisco Liriano
After a strong start to the season, Francisco Liriano has come back down to earth some, particularly in the late summer. Liriano has pitched to a 4.82 ERA overall, but the 34-year-old has a 5.32 ERA and 1.90 WHIP since the All-Star break, failing to get through six innings in any of his starts. His walks have risen and he’s seen a parade of hits. Ron Gardenhire gave Liriano a few extra days off before this start.

The left-hander has essentially eschewed his four-seamer entirely and uses his sinker 41 percent of the time. Outside of that, he’s still the same heavy-slider pitcher we know and love with 1/5 changeups to boot.

Last Outing (vs. CHC on Aug. 22) – 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HR

Friday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Jordan Zimmermann
The other veteran on the staff, Jordan Zimmermann has fared much better in 2018 than 2017. After he was tied for the MLB lead in earned runs allowed last year, he’s improved, sporting a respectable 4.38 ERA over 100 2/3 innings. The former National has seen a steep rise in his K rate while also cutting down on his walks, a nice recipe even if he allows 1.61 HR per nine.

Zimmermann throws 45.1 percent fastballs, averaging 91.2 mph with the heater while going to his slider a third of the time and mixing in some curveballs and occasional changeups. His slider has been his most effective pitch and he works it in the mid-80s.

Last Outing (vs. CHW on Aug. 26) – 6.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Saturday (4:05 PM ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. TBD
Right now, the Tigers have a four men in their rotation with the fourth, Michael Fulmer, starting Wednesday. Therefore, the Sept. 1 start has plenty of options, one of whom could be Daniel Norris. He made a rehab appearance in Toledo on Sunday, throwing 72 pitches over four innings. As mentioned above, Norris is rehabbing groin surgery he underwent earlier this year.

If not Norris, we could be in for a dreaded bullpen game. Considering the expanded rosters, that could mean a whole slew of young relievers. Oh boy.

Sunday (1:05 PM ET): RHP Lance Lynn vs. LHP Matthew Boyd
Matthew Boyd has been one of the Tigers’ most reliable starters this season after being hit hard in 2017. At 27 years old, he’s put together 147 innings with a 4.22 ERA and a 3.98 FIP. The good news for the Yankees is that he is much better at Comerica Park (2.56 ERA, 5 HR in 70 1/3 innings) than on the road (5.75 ERA, 12 HR in 76 2/3 innings). He hasn’t had a significant platoon split this season.

Featuring a similar repertoire to Zimmermann, the southpaw works off a low-90s fastball with over 30 percent sliders and a mix of 70s curveballs and changeups. According to Fangraphs pitch values, he’s had one of the most effective sliders in baseball this season.

Last Outing (@ KC on Aug. 28) – 6.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR

The Bullpen

Shane Greene is still the Tigers’ closer. Joe Jimenez had emerged as a setup man, but he’s struggled of late. Josh Smoker and Daniel Stumpf are the lefties in the bullpen. The group has a high ERA (4.51) but has put together league-average-ish peripherals. Here are their post-All-Star break numbers going into yesterday:

  • 4.67 ERA (24th in MLB)
  • 4.21 FIP (12th in MLB)
  • 0.7 WAR (11th in MLB)
  • 21.7% K rate (18th in MLB)
  • 7.5% BB rate (8th in MLB)
  • 1.31 HR/9 (20th in MLB)

The team needed 4 1/3 innings out of five relievers Wednesday, though they’ll receive the boost of September callups in just a few days.

Yankees Connection

Greene was the price the Yankees paid to get Didi Gregorius while 40-man roster presence Johnny Barbato pitched 13 lackluster innings as a rookie for the Bombers in 2016.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

  • This is the type of offense the Yankees should shut down. Could be nice to see the Wild Card Game starting candidates (Happ, Severino, Tanaka) go on a roll vs. the Tigers.
  • I like watching Matthew Boyd pitch (and not just because he gave up that monster Gary Sanchez homer last year!)

8/27 to 8/29 Series Preview: Chicago White Sox

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Adam Engel is here to rob all of your home runs. (David Banks/Getty Images)

One can truly tell the season is approaching its conclusion when you get to the penultimate homestand of the year. The Yankees host two rebuilding AL Central teams this week, beginning with the Chicago White Sox.

The Last Time They Met

The Bombers are just three weeks removed from sweeping the South Siders at Guaranteed Rate Field on Aug. 6-8.

  • Lance Lynn dominated the White Sox in his first Yankee start, helping to end a five-game losing streak for New York.
  • The Yankees needed extra innings and a solid relief appearance from Sonny Gray to escape with a win in Game 2. Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar provided the heroics on offense.
  • Stanton’s grand slam buoyed the Yankees to a sweep while Luis Severino went seven strong for a quality start.
  • The Yankees would have had a much easier time if Adam Engel didn’t take away multiple home runs.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

The big news since last time is that Jose Abreu, the White Sox’s lone All Star, underwent abdominal surgery and is out until September. OF Leury Garcia also suffered a hamstring injury that could finish off his season.

Their Story So Far

The White Sox remain mired in fourth place at 51-79, matching their Pythagorean record. They’re in the middle part of a rebuild, no longer at the nadir of trading all assets and not yet in a place to contend. They have plenty of talent in the minor leagues as well as some fledgling former prospects working to make it in the majors, but Chicago is still a few years from seeing a second contending team within city limits.

Lineup We Might See

1. 3B Yolmer Sanchez (.245/.312/.381, 90 wRC+)
2. SS Tim Anderson (.247/.293/.417, 91 wRC+)
3. RF Avisail Garcia (.235/.267/.437, 87 wRC+)
4. DH Daniel Palka (.239/.282/.478, 102 wRC+)
5. 1B Matt Davidson (.228/.324/.450, 112 wRC+)
6. C Omar Narvaez (.284/.378/.436, 127 wRC+)
7. 2B Yoan Moncada (.221/.303/.396, 91 wRC+)
8. LF Nicky Delmonico (.229/.319/.410, 100 wRC+)
9. CF Adam Engel (.234/.277/.345, 70 wRC+)

Expect Anderson in the leadoff spot when CC Sabathia starts Wednesday while former Twins OF Ryan LaMarre could find his way into the lineup as well.

Rodon (Jon Durr/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Carlos Rodon
After battling injuries and high expectations for years, Carlos Rodon — the 2014 No. 3 overall pick — is starting to find a groove in his fourth season. In each of eight starts since the start of July, he’s tossed at least six innings while giving up no more than three runs. In fact, he’s only given up more than two runs once while going seven or more innings in five of the eight outings.

Interestingly, his K-BB rate has declined this season, but he’s held opponents to a .183 batting average while cutting his home run rate significantly. He has a 64 ERA- but a 100 FIP-.

Rodon works off a 93-mph fastball with an effective mid-80s slider he throws a fourth of the time and a changeup he goes to as a third offering.

Last Outing (vs. MIN on Aug. 22) – 6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Tuesday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP James Shields
Big Game James! James Shields was one of the worst pitchers in the American League in 2016-17, but he’s been a more average-ish workhorse this year. Still not worth trading Fernando Tatis Jr. for, but much more effective. He’s cut down on walks and home runs and sports a 4.59 ERA, much better than his 5.99 ERA as a Chicago pitcher before this season.

Shields uses his high-80s fastball a third of the time while working in a cutter, curveball and changeup each at least 18 percent. Only his changeup has a positive pitch value on Fangraphs, though his fastball hasn’t been quite the negative as it was in the past.

Last Outing (@ DET on Aug. 23) – 6.2 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 3 HR

Wednesday (7:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez
In a rematch of earlier this month, Reynaldo Lopez will face the task of staring down the veteran Sabathia. The young righty no-hit the Yankees until the sixth inning on Aug. 7 and allowed just one run over seven innings. However, since that start, he hasn’t completed six innings and has been lit up by the Tigers and Royals over three starts to the tune of a .321/.383/.566 batting line. Yikes.

Lopez works off his mid-90s fastball while going to a mid-80s slider and mid-80s changeup. He’ll also throw an occasional slow curve.

Last Outing (@ DET on Aug. 24) – 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 K

The Bullpen

The White Sox traded Luis Avilan to the Phillies last week, which means they are short another veteran arm in their pen. Still, the White Sox’s bullpen is much more respectable than you might expect. Here are their numbers since the All-Star break.

  • 4.56 ERA (21st in MLB)
  • 3.87 FIP (8th in MLB)
  • 1.1 WAR (9th in MLB)
  • 25.7% K rate (6th in MLB)
  • 10.0% BB rate (24th in MLB)
  • 0.99 HR/9 (6th in MLB)

LHP Jace Fry has picked up Chicago’s last two saves, but it seems to be more of a closer-by-committee situation. Fellow southpaws Hector Santiago and Xavier Cedeno get plenty of appearances, as do righties Juan Minaya and Jeanmar Gomez.

Yankees Connection

Only Yankees connection on the 40-man roster is Ian Clarkin, who was part of the Robertson-Kahnle-Frazier deal last season.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

  • Rodon has the ability to electrify, but the Yankees are quite competent against left-handed pitching, even without Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. The matchup between Rodon and Stanton should be fun.
  • Can Engel stop robbing everyone’s homers? Please and thank you.

8/25 to 8/27 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles

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Meet the new Orioles outfield. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

The Yankees continue their road trip of last-place teams in Baltimore where they’ll take on the worst team in baseball. Can the Yankees finally break through against the Orioles? They’ll have four chances in three days.

The Last Time They Met

On July 31-Aug. 1, the Yankees and Orioles played a two-game series right after the trade deadline and split with the O’s taking the series finale.

  • Masahiro Tanaka danced out of a first-inning jam to toss six scoreless frames in the opener en route to a 6-3 victory. The big blow in the game came off the bat of Miguel Andujar, who launched a three-run homer to make it 6-0.
  • Sonny Gray made his final start before being bumped from the bullpen in the finale, allowing seven runs in 2 2/3 innings. Lance Lynn cleaned up for him with 4 1/3 shutout innings, but it wasn’t enough.
  • Gleyber Torres hit a pair of home runs in the Aug. 1 game, helping make up for an early fielding miscue. Didi Gregorius had three hits.

Injury Report

Relievers Pedro Araujo, Richard Bleier, Jhan Marinez and Gabriel Ynoa are all out and won’t return this series. Marinez is on rehab assignment in rookie ball. Bleier and Ynoa are likely out for the season.

On offense, the O’s will miss OF/DH Mark Trumbo, who was placed on the DL this week with right knee inflammation.

Their Story So Far

So. So. Bad. At a blistering 37-90, the Orioles are 52 games back(!) in the AL East. They’ve already been eliminated from playoff contention and are on pace for a 47-115 record. Considering they traded Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Gausman, and Zach Britton at the deadline, they actually might be worse than their record says.

The O’s are *slightly* better at home, going 21-40 at beautiful Camden Yards this season. The Yankees are a paltry 6-6 against the Birds this year, playing down to the competition. That’s been one of the few respites for this truly awful Baltimore squad.

The Lineup We Might See

Buck Showalter has his hands full with trying to piece together a good offense. With a young mix surrounding a few veterans, here’s what the lineup may look like this weekend:

1. Cedric Mullins, CF – .310/.396/.571, 2 HR, 0 SB, 162 wRC+
2. Jonathan Villar, 2B – .260/.320/.384, 9 HR, 18 SB, 90 wRC+
3. Trey Mancini, DH – .235/.299/.386, 17 HR, 0 SB, 86 wRC+
4. Adam Jones, RF – .281/.315/.431, 13 HR, 4 SB, 101 wRC+
5. Chris Davis, 1B – .163/.241/.306, 15 HR, 2 SB, 46 wRC+
6. Renato Nunez, 3B – .234/.317/.383, 3 HR, 0 SB, 91 wRC+
7. Tim Beckham, SS – .222/.282/.353, 8 HR, 1 SB, 72 wRC+
8. John Andreoli, LF – .273/.385/.273, 0 HR, 1 SB, 95 wRC+
9. Caleb Joseph, C – .215/.258/.337, 3 HR, 2 SB, 59 wRC+

The team features Craig Gentry, Jace Peterson and Austin Wynns off the bench, all of whom figure to get a start on Saturday at the very least.

The Starting Pitchers We Will (Probably) See

Friday (7:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Alex Cobb
Alex Cobb came into his start on July 13 with a 6.67 ERA. Since then, he’s looked much more like the pitcher that the Orioles thought worthy of a four-year, $60-million deal in the offseason with a 2.14 ERA over his last seven starts. The improvements haven’t been drastic in some of his underlying numbers with a slight uptick in his K-BB and groundball rates, but he’s ceded far fewer home runs and seen his batting average against plummet.

His run of recent success culminated in a complete game victory his last start vs. Cleveland. What might be causing this overhaul in Cobb’s season? It could be the return of his split-changeup, which he’s used with much more frequency in the last two months. With that back, it’s his most frequent pitch alongside his sinker and curveball.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 8/13) – 9.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 K

Saturday Game 1 (1:05 PM ET): RHP J.A. Happ vs. TBA
Saturday Game 2 (7:05 PM ET): TBA vs. TBA
I’ll link these together because, as of this writing, the Orioles have yet to announce a starter for Saturday’s pair of games despite having a pitcher in place for Sunday. Thanks to a day off on Thursday, the O’s could go with two of their normal rotation pieces (Andrew Cashner, Yefry Ramirez) for both games, though they would need a sixth starter at some point next week.

If Baltimore wants to use their 26th man to fill in one of the starts, they’ll be able to use Jimmy Yacabonis, who pitched in last month’s doubleheader against the Yankees as well as their twin bill with the Red Sox two weeks ago. He last pitched vs. Scranton on Aug. 18, so he’d be well rested. When facing the two-pitch pitcher with occasional bouts of wildness, the Yankees attacked Yacabonis early in the count to take advantage of fastballs on the plate.

The Yankees have not yet announced their starter for the second game of the doubleheader, but Aaron Boone has indicated Sonny Gray will get the ball. Luis Cessa also lines up to pitch that day and figures to come up as the 26th man for long relief duty, at the very least.

Update: Dan Connolly says Yacabonis will start one of the doubleheader games Saturday. For the Orioles, that is.

Sunday (8:05 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Dylan Bundy
While Cobb has found his groove, Bundy has gone in the opposite direction. He’s allowed seven earned runs in each of his last three starts and has a ghastly 9.08 ERA over his last eight starts (39 2/3 innings). In that span, he’s given up 15 home runs with three coming in his most recent start in Toronto. Unlike other Baltimore starters, he’s even struggled against the Yankees this year, allowing five runs over four innings on July 11.

The 25-year-old righty works off his low-90s fastball while mixing in a low-80s slider, mid-80s changeup and mid-70s curveball. He’s had some success with the slider this year, but the other pitches have been hit hard.

Last outing (vs. ATL on 8/14) – 4.1 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 3 HR

The Bullpen

With the spate of trades at the deadline, Mychal Givens has taken over the closing role by default as he is the only proven reliever on the squad. Outside of him, it’s a mix of misfits and rookies, including former Yankee farmhand Cody Carroll.

Here’s how the Orioles’ pen has shaped up since the non-waiver trade deadline:

  • 1.1 WAR (Last in MLB)
  • 7.82 ERA (Last in MLB)
  • 6.44 FIP (Last in MLB)
  • 14.8% BB rate (Last in MLB)
  • 5.1% K-BB rate (Last in MLB)
  • 1.99 HR per nine (28th in MLB)

Outside of Givens, Buck Showalter doesn’t have a go-to reliever upon whom he can rely. If the starter doesn’t last eight with a lead, it’s tough sledding to complete a win for the O’s.

Who (Or What) To Watch

  • Weekend doubleheaders are always nice as it means something to keep on the TV all day, even if it’s just in the background. However, this one involves the Orioles.
  • We keep hammering this point, but the Yankees really need to take advantage of facing bad teams and losing to the Orioles has been the main reason why. Good teams beat up on bad ones. Plain and simple.