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Yankeemetrics: Welcome back bats, sweep Jays (Aug. 17-19)

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(AP)

Rain FTW
The Yankees snapped their mini losing streak and offensive slump with a rain-shortened 7-5 win over the Blue Jays in Friday’s opener. It was their first game called early because of weather since July 23, 2014 against the Rangers, a game that was stopped in the fifth.

Lance Lynn made sure that this would be a hard-earned comeback win as he got hammered by the Blue Jays in the first inning, surrendering four runs on three hits and three walks before the Yankees even got a chance to swing the bat. Regression is an unforgiving and terrible monster:

Lance Lynn as a Yankee
IP Runs K/BB Opp AVG
Friday 4 5 5/3 .353
First 3 Games 16.2 1 22/4 .200

It’s the first time the Yankees won a game after giving up four or more runs in the first inning since … May 3 last year against Toronto. The opposing starter that the Yankees pounded that day in the Bronx? Yup, Marcus Stroman, the same guy that the Yankees blitzed on Friday.

Didi Gregorius (RBI triple) and Miguel Andujar (RBI double) sparked the rally in the bottom of the first, quickly cutting the deficit to two runs. Gregorius’ triple was his fourth of the season, the same number he had in his previous three seasons combined with the team. Andujar’s two-bagger was his 35th of the season, putting the young third baseman in elite company.

Neil Walker turned a 4-2 deficit into a 5-4 advantage with one swing of the bat in the fourth inning. His three-run shot off Stroman was his seventh homer of the season but his first as a Yankee that gave the team a lead.

Giancarlo Stanton capped off the scoring with a mammoth solo shot to right-center in the bottom of the seventh, just before the rainstorm halted the game. It went a projected 431 feet, the fifth time this season he hit a homer of at least 430 feet to center or the opposite field, tied with Bryce Harper for the most in the majors through Friday.

(USA Today)

Bombers back in style
The Yankees continued to bash Blue Jays pitching, scoring in double digits for the first time in more than six weeks en route to a homer-fueled 11-6 win on Saturday. They hit four home runs, giving them 201 through 123 games played. The only team in MLB history to reach the 200-homer mark quicker was the 2005 Rangers, who needed 122 games.

Luis Severino, who entered the game still struggling through a deep month-plus slump, bounced back from a terrible outing against the Mets earlier in the week to throw one of his best starts since the beginning of July. Though he struggled with his pitch efficiency (needed 100 pitches to get 15 outs), and gave up a bunch of hard contact (5 of 12 balls in play had an exit velocity of 98-plus mph), he was able to limit the damage to two runs while getting eight strikeouts.

The most encouraging number might be zero, as in the number of home runs he allowed. It was his first clean outing since July 1, and he had coughed up 11 dingers in his previous seven games before Saturday. His fastball command seemed to be improved, as he mostly avoided the meatball four-seamers that had plagued him recently. Even when he did leave a few of them over the heart of the plate, he was able to generate a whiff or a foul, giving up just two singles on his heater.

Miguel Andujar hit the team’s 200th homer in the fifth inning, his 20th of the season. He is the fifth Yankee with at least 20 home runs, making the Yankees the only team in MLB with five 20-homer guys this season. Combined with his 36 doubles, Andujar is clearly putting up special numbers for a player as young as he is:

Another Happ-y day
The Yankees completed the three-game sweep and finished off their 11-game homestand with another easy blowout win on Sunday, 10-2. They’re now a season-high 32 games above .500, the first time they’ve reached that mark since they ended the 2011 season with a 97-65 record.

They put up nearly identical box score numbers as the previous game, exploding for 10 runs and 12 hits (had 11 runs and 11 hits on Saturday). This was the 629th game in the history of the Jays-Yanks rivalry, but the first time the Yankees scored at least 10 runs in back-to-back games against them.

The Yankees wasted no time in lighting up the scoreboard as the first six batters each scored in the opening frame before Kyle Higashioka flew out to center for the first out. You have to go back more than two decades to find the last time the Yankees scored at least six runs to start a game prior to making an out — on May 17, 1997 against the Rangers in Texas. The last time they did at at Yankee Stadium was September 25, 1990 against the Orioles.

(USA Today)

The big blow came off the bat of Greg Bird, who clobbered his second career grand slam — both of which have come in the last six weeks. He is just the fourth Yankee first baseman to hit multiple grand slams in a single season:

J.A. Happ got off to a rough start, giving up a two-out solo homer in the first inning, but then quickly regrouped and didn’t allow another run until Kendrys Morales took him deep to lead off the sixth. It wasn’t a gem, but Happ still pitched well enough (2 ER in 5 1/3 IP) to win for the fourth time in four starts with the team. The Yankees have won all seven games started by Lance Lynn and Happ this season. Finally, a couple #FunFacts to celebrate Happ’s time so far in pinstripes:

  • First pitcher to win each of his first four starts as a Yankee since David Cone in 1995…
  • …And the first to do it with an ERA as low as Happ’s (2.22) since Phil Niekro in 1984 (0.98)
  • The only other left-handers to win each of their first four starts as a Yankee (since 1908) were Rob Gardner (1970-72) and Babe Ruth (1920-33)

Game 122: Leave it to Lynn

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Lynnsanity (Elsa/Getty Images)

That Rays series was a bummer, right? Yuck. Two opportunities to win the series with one clunker and another lifeless heartbreaker. Luckily, the Yankees’ schedule moves down the AL East standings to the Blue Jays, who got into New York late last night. They had their series finale in Kansas City delayed by rain and then had to fly all the way to NYC. Good chance to catch a tired team.

The Yankees will face Marcus Stroman, who the Bombers roughed up in April. Read more about that in Domenic’s series preview. Good stuff as always from Dom! Meanwhile, Lance Lynn toes the rubber aiming for his fourth straight good outing as a Yankee. He closed his forgettable April with a loss to the Jays, but he’s looked like a different pitcher over the last month. A strong 0.54 ERA since the trade deadline.

Here are the lineups for tonight’s contest:

New York Yankees
1. Brett Gardner, LF
2. Giancarlo Stanton, DH
3. Aaron Hicks, CF
4. Didi Gregorius, SS
5. Miguel Andujar, 3B
6. Gleyber Torres, 2B
7. Greg Bird, 1B
8. Neil Walker, RF
9. Austin Romine, C

RHP Lance Lynn

Toronto Blue Jays
1. Curtis Granderson, RF
2. Devon Travis, 2B
3. Justin Smoak, 1B
4. Kendrys Morales, DH
5. Russell Martin, C
6. Kevin Pillar, CF
7. Randal Grichuk, LF
8. Aledmys Diaz, 3B
9. Richard Urena, C

RHP Marcus Stroman

There’s a chance of thunderstorms right around first pitch, though it’s only about 50-50. An opportunity for a small delay, but they’ll should be able to get this game in, interruption or no. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM EST and the broadcast will be on WPIX, not YES, though you can catch pregame and postgame on YES.

Jays Roster Moves: The Blue Jays called up Billy McKinney this afternoon to replace Luke Maile, who is on paternity leave. That gives McKinney the opportunity to play his first game at Yankee Stadium after making his only appearance as a Yankee at Rogers Centre.

Update: 10 p.m. Game is in a rain delay with the Yankees leading, 7-5, in the bottom of the seventh. Rain is coming in steady, so it may be a while until they continue or call it.

Update: 11:10 p.m. Game is called and it’s a Yankee win! Won’t have the recap up for a while, so here’s a one-sentence recap: Bullpen and offense made up for early Lynn struggles while Stanton and Walker both went deep. Huzzah.

Yankeemetrics: Going going gone, Bombers roll over Rangers (Aug. 9-12)

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(AP)

Bombs away
Back in the Bronx for a season-high 11-game homestand — their longest since June 2005 — a home run derby erupted as the Yankees beat up on the Rangers in series opener, 7-3. Aaron Hicks kicked off the fireworks with a two-run blast in the first inning, his 20th of the season. He is the fourth Yankee to reach that milestone this season, tied with the Indians for the most 20-homer players in MLB.

Hicks also is the third Yankee outfielder to hit 20 longballs this season. This is the fourth time in franchise history they’ve had three guys hit 20 homers and play at least 60 games in the outfield (yes, Stanton has played 60) in the same season.

  • 2018: Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton
  • 2004: Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield, Bernie Williams
  • 1961: Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris
  • 1941: Joe DiMaggio, Charlie Keller, Tommy Henrich

Miguel Andujar and Neil Walker launched back-to-back homers in the fourth inning, Stanton added a massive laser shot in the fifth and Walker capped the dinger party with another solo shot in the sixth.

Stanton’s 449-foot missile left his bat at 121.7 mph, the fastest exit velocity of any home run measured by Statcast (since 2015), and the hardest-hit ball — out or hit — in the majors this season. Another #StatcastFunFact: through Thursday there have been 10 batted balls with an exit velocity of 119 mph or more this season … and all 10 were hit by Yankees (Sanchez and Judge each have one, Stanton has eight).

For Walker, it was his sixth career multi-homer game but the first time he’s homered from both sides of the plate in the same game. Walker is the only player in franchise history to achieve the feat as a second baseman in a game.

(AP)

Bombs away, the enemy version
The Rangers got revenge on Friday night with their own dinger party, crushing four homers to beat Yankees, 12-7. Masahiro Tanaka’s gopheritis returned as he coughed up three homers and was torched for six runs in five innings. He had been excellent in his first five starts off the DL, posting a 1.78 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings, but regressed badly on Friday night:

Rangers first baseman Ronald Guzman stole the highlights with his unprecedented three-homer night, becoming the first rookie ever to go deep three times against the Yankees. At the age of 23 years and 294 days old, he also was the second-youngest player to hit a trio of bombs against the Bronx Bombers, behind only Indians outfielder Pat Seerey (22 years, 118 days) on July 13, 1945.

Austin Romine earns our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series for his huge effort, going 3-for-4 with a homer and a steal(!) while driving in three runs. He is the sixth Yankee catcher with a home run, a steal and at least three RBI in a game, and the first do it since Thurman Munson on June 15, 1976 vs Twins. The other guys were Jake Gibbs (1971), Yogi Berra (1958), Bill Dickey (1938, 1932) and Eddie Phillips (1932).

(New York Post)

Mighty Miggy saves the day
The Yankees pulled out an ugly 5-3 win on a rainy Saturday at the Stadium, surviving a bullpen meltdown thanks to another clutch hit by Miguel Andujar. Lance Lynn delivered a third straight solid outing in pinstripes, and the one run he allowed in the third inning is the only scoring blemish on his Yankee resume so far.

He also etched his name in the Yankeemetric record books with these two #FunFacts:

  • Lynn is first player in franchise history to begin his Yankee career with three consecutive games of no more than one earned run allowed and at least five strikeouts.
  • He is also the first guy to strike out at least eight batters and give up no more than one earned run each of his first two starts as a Yankee.

Miguel Andujar rehashed his role of clutch-hitting hero with a two-run, opposite field blast in the seventh inning that broke a 3-3 tie. It was his fourth go-ahead hit in the seventh inning or later this season, the most on the team thru Saturday. The only other Yankee rookies over the last 25 years to compile four go-ahead hits in the seventh or later are Nick Johnson (2002) and Derek Jeter (1996).

(AP)

Ace Sabathia
Backed by a vintage gem from CC Sabathia and more bombs from the bats, the Yankees clinched the series win over the Rangers with a 7-2 win on Sunday. They still have lost just one series at home this season, April 5-8 against the Orioles.

The seven-run, two-homer outburst extended a couple notable streaks.

  • 14th straight home game scoring at least five runs, tied for the second-longest such streak in franchise history (also had 14-game streak in 1937). The only longer one is a 21-gamer by the 1938 team.
  • Seventh straight game with multiple homers, tied for the second-longest such streak in Yankees history (also had 7-game streaks in 2014, 1986, 1955, 1937). The only longer streak is nine games during the 2009 season.
  • 23 homers in seven games against the Rangers this season, their most home runs hit against any opponent in a season series of 10 or fewer games.

CC Sabathia carved through the Rangers lineup with his signature arsenal of well-located cutters and sliders, allowing a season-low one hit — a dribbler in front of the plate. The only ball in play he allowed to the outfield (excluding Andujar’s error) was a warning-track flyout in the third inning. Otherwise, lots of groundouts and seven strikeouts:

Only two other Yankees as old as (or older than) the 38-year-old Sabathia have pitched a game with at least seven strikeouts and no more than one hit allowed — Randy Johnson (in 2005 and 2006) and Roger Clemens (in 2001 and 2003).

Sabathia did have to pitch around six baserunners, but did so masterfully, with six scoreless innings. He’s held batters to a .156 batting average with runners in scoring position this season, the third-lowest in the AL and seventh-lowest in MLB among qualified starters.

Giancarlo Stanton lit up the scoreboard early with a bullet line drive homer in the first inning, his 30th of the season. It was also his 16th longball in a two-strike count, tied for the most in MLB this season. Looking ahead … no Yankee since 1988 (when we have official pitch count data) has finished a season with at least 20 homers and more than half of them coming in two-strike counts.

Yankeemetrics: Windy City Sweep (August 6-8)

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(Getty)

Lynn FTW
The Yankees snapped out of their offensive funk and bounced back from their worst loss of the season with a drama-free 7-0 blanking of the White Sox in the series opener. It was their ninth shutout of the season, two more than they had all of last year. The last time the Yankees compiled at least nine shutouts, including two by individual pitchers, at this point in the season (111th game)? 1998, of course.

The offense was powered by some timely hitting in the early innings and a couple late homers from Gleyber Torres and Neil Walker. For Torres it was his 18th dinger of the season, tied for the third-most by an American League rookie second baseman all-time.

Most HR by AL Rookie 2nd Baseman
Year HR
Joe Gordon 1938 25
Alexei Ramirez 2008 21
Gleyber Torres 2018 18
Alfonso Soriano 2001 18
Tony Lazzeri 1926 18

Yes, four of the five on that list wore Yankee pinstripes in their rookie campaigns.

Lance Lynn helped to stop the bleeding as he produced a historic outing in his first career start for the Bombers, allowing zero runs over 7 1/3 innings. Lynn is the third Yankee in the last 25 seasons to throw at least seven scoreless innings in his starting debut for the team, joining Jose Contreras (2003) and Mike Mussina (2001).

But Lynn was even more dominant, giving up just two hits and one, and earns our #FunFact of the game: He is the only pitcher in franchise history to pitch at least seven innings, allow zero earned runs and no more than three baserunners in his first start as a Yankee.

Plus, combined with his clean 4 1/3 inning relief appearance last week, he is the second pitcher in the last 100 years to start his Yankee career with consecutive games of four-or-more scoreless innings pitched. The other was Allie Reynolds, who threw back-to-back shutouts in his first two games as a Yankee in April 1947.

(USA Today)

Miggy, Sonny to the rescue
The Yankees avoided what would have been their second demoralizing and disastrous loss in three nights by surviving a 13-inning, crazy 4-3 win on Tuesday. They improved to 18-12 in games decided by one run this season, matching their win total from all of last year (18-26).

The game started as an unlikely pitchers duel between CC Sabathia and Reynaldo Lopez, and ended with an even more unlikely pitching hero on the mound, relief ace Sonny Gray.

Sabathia was in vintage form, using his changeup/slider/cutter mix to get a whopping 22 whiffs, his most in any start since June 7, 2012. Thirteen of those 22 came via his signature cutter, easily the most swings-and-misses he’s ever gotten with that pitch in a game since he added it to his arsenal a couple years ago. He was pulled at a season-high-tying 103 pitches after striking out 12 batters in 5 2/3 innings pitched:

And let’s celebrate Sabathia’s tremendous outing with some #FunFacts:

  • Second-oldest Yankee (38 years, 17 days) to strike out at least 12 guys in a game, behind only Roger Clemens, who had two 13-K games at the age of 39 in 2002.
  • Last lefty as old Sabathia on any team to have 12 strikeouts in a game was a 44-year-old Randy Johnson for the Diamondbacks in 2008.
  • Last southpaw age 38 or older with a 12-plus-strikeout game in the American League was Thornton Lee, who had 13 strikeouts for the White Sox on June 12, 1945 against the Indians.

The offensive hero of the game was Miguel Andujar who made sure the fans got free baseball when he crushed a game-tying solo home run in the seventh inning. Andujar (15) and Gleyber Torres (18 homers) are the first set of Yankee rookie teammates ever to hit at least 15 homers in the same season.

(USA Today)

Giancarlo Stanton gave the Yankees a brief 3-1 lead with a two-run homer in the top of the 10th. But that advantage soon vanished in the bottom of the frame when Zach Britton picked the absolute worst time to give up his first career extra-inning home run, a game-tying two-out, two-run shot by Jose Abreu (who enjoyed rounding the bases after his first career extra-inning blast).

Britton’s meltdown earns him our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: he is the first Yankee to cough up a game-tying home run in extra innings since Bud Daley on June 10, 1964 against the Red Sox.

(AP)

Andujar rescued Britton from being the goat with his go-ahead RBI single in the top of the 13th, his first career RBI and fourth hit in extra innings. His four extra-inning hits are the most in a season by a Yankee age 23 or younger since Derek Jeter (5) in 1997. Following Tuesday’s game, Andujar was hitting .406/.429/.563 in high-leverage plate appearances per Fangraphs, compared to the league-average line of .242/.323/.385.

Finally, the unlikely pitching savior was Gray, who took over in the 11th and threw three scoreless innings with one walk and one hit for the win. And one more #FunFact to praise Mr. Gray: the last Yankee pitcher to earn a win on the road by getting at least nine outs in extras while allowing no more than two baserunners was Mariano Rivera on May 20, 2006 in Detroit.

Return of Sevy Strong
Thanks to a solid, bounceback effort from Luis Severino and a game-changing bases-loaded bomb from Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees finished off the three-game sweep with an easy 7-3 victory. They are now 19-5 (.792) vs the AL Central this season, the best record by any AL team against an AL division and any NL team against an NL division.

Severino — who entered with the worst ERA in the majors over the last 30 days (9.00) among players with at least 20 innings pitched — had a rocky first inning, allowing two runs on three hits. That followed a concerning trend for Sevy over the past month:

But he locked in and flipped the script after the rough opening frame, retiring 11 in a row at one point. He finished with three runs allowed, eight strikeouts and no walks in seven innings, his his best outing since July 1. Severino’s slider was filthy, falling off the table and out of the zone, generating a bunch of silly swings:

He threw 45 sliders and matched a season-best with 11 whiffs via the pitch, one more than he had in his previous two starts combined.

Giancarlo delivered the big blow in the second inning, snapping a 2-2 tie with his first grand slam as a Yankee. Before Wednesday, his last homer with bases loaded was April 18, 2014, a walk-off slam against the Mariners. He’s the first Yankee with a tie-breaking grand slam against the White Sox since Tino Martinez on July 16, 1997. Hooray.

Game 106: Calm Before The Storm

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(Presswire)

The Yankees wrap up this six-game homestand against the two worst teams in baseball this afternoon with the second of two against the Orioles. Tomorrow the Yankees head up to Boston to start a super important four-game series. Could very well be the biggest series of the season. Gotta take care of business against the O’s today first. The Yankees have lost enough games to Baltimore already. Focus on the task at hand.

Sonny Gray is on the mound this afternoon and he has pitched quite well the last few times out, not coincidentally against bad teams. The Yankees lined up the rotation out of the All-Star break in such a way that Gray would only face crummy teams like the Mets and Royals and Orioles. Can’t say I blame them. Beat the Orioles today then get ready for that massive series at Fenway Park. The lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Brett Gardner
2. DH Giancarlo Stanton
3. SS Didi Gregorius
4. CF Aaron Hicks
5. 2B Gleyber Torres
6. 1B Greg Bird
7. 3B Miguel Andujar
8. C Austin Romine
9. RF Shane Robinson

RHP Sonny Gray

Baltimore Orioles
1. SS Tim Beckham
2. RF Jace Peterson
3. CF Adam Jones
4. DH Danny Valencia
5. 1B Chris Davis
6. LF Trey Mancini
7. C Caleb Joseph
8. 3B Renato Nunez
9. 2B Breyvic Valera

RHP Alex Cobb

Pretty cloudy in New York with rain in the forecast later today. Fortunately things cleared up enough that there shouldn’t be much of a problem getting today’s game in. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and MLB Network out-of-market. Enjoy the game.

Roster Move: Lance Lynn has arrived and is on the active roster. He is wearing No. 36. Ryan Bollinger was sent down to clear a roster spot. I get the sense he’s going to be outrighted off the 40-man roster pretty soon. Lynn last started last Friday and is available to pitch today.

Injury Update: Aaron Judge (wrist) is getting better but he has not started baseball activities aside from shagging fly balls during batting practice. The hope is he can start taking dry swings within a week … J.A. Happ (hand, foot, and mouth disease) is doing better and tentatively remains on track to make his scheduled start Saturday. The Yankees will have a better idea about his availability tomorrow. If Happ can’t start Saturday, Lynn and Luis Cessa are the alternatives.

Yanks acquire Lance Lynn for Tyler Austin, pitching prospect

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(Omar Rawlings/Getty)

Even with J.A. Happ on board, the Yankees have decided to add another starting pitcher. Tyler Austin and pitching prospect Luis Rijo have been traded to the Twins for right-hander Lance Lynn, it has been announced. It is a done deal. Officially official. Jon Heyman says the Twins are eating half Lynn’s salary.

“It’s the New York Yankees. As a fan of the game growing up, it’s exciting for me as a young kid, seeing them in their heyday winning a lot of World Series championships,” said Lynn to Dan Hayes. “You look at their team now, they’re going for it. I’m excited for that opportunity and that challenge. It’s going to be a different experience. I’m just going to go in there and try to do everything I can to help, whatever that may be.”

The Yankees shipped Adam Warren to the Mariners for international bonus money earlier today, so they essentially swapped Warren for Lynn on the roster. It breaks down like this:

  • Yankees get: Lynn and $1.25M in international bonus money
  • Yankees give up: Warren, Austin, Rijo

Lynn, 31, has a 5.10 ERA (4.73 FIP) with 21.3% strikeout rate and a 50.8% ground ball rate in 102.1 innings this season, all as a starter. His walk rate (13.2%) is way too high. It’s been high his entire career (career 9.4% walk rate), but never this high. Free passes are bad news, though at least Lynn mitigates them with strikeouts and grounders.

For what it’s worth, Lynn has pitched better since an ugly April — seems like all the free agents who signed late started slow this year — throwing 78.2 innings with a 4.12 ERA (4.16 FIP). Walk rate (11.1%) is still too high, though the strikeouts (21.0%) and grounders (50.6%) have been there. Clearly, the Yankees are banking on track record here. Lynn owns a career 3.54 ERA (3.74 FIP).

The Yankees presumably swapped Warren for Lynn because they believe Lynn is better capable of stepping into the rotation, if necessary. I don’t disagree with that. Lynn does have bullpen experience, though it’s been a while. The Cardinals regularly used him out of the bullpen in the postseason during their glory days from 2011-15.

Austin was made completely expendable by the recent Luke Voit pickup. They’re both 27-ish year old right-handed hitting first basemen. Austin will be out of minor league options after the season. Voit will not. So there you go. Voit replaces Austin as the up-and-down platoon first baseman going forward.

When Greg Bird was hurt earlier this year, Austin stepped up and hit .290/.362/.629 (166 wRC+) with five home runs in April. He wasn’t so good after that, finishing with a .223/.280/.471 (111 wRC+) line with eight homers and 40.2% strikeouts in 132 big league plate appearances before being sent to Triple-A. Austin was good when the Yankees needed him. Props.

Rijo, 19, has a 2.77 ERA (2.47 FIP) with 19.5% strikeouts and 1.8% walks in 39 rookie ball inning this season. He is not among MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects and he wasn’t going to be on my upcoming post-draft top 30 prospects list. The Yankees literally have more pitching prospects than rotation spots in the minors. They’re loaded with kids like Rijo. No surprise they dealt from that depth.

As for the financials, the Warren trade combined with the Twins eating half Lynn’s salary makes this effectively cash neutral for the Yankees. They’re still about $3M under the $197M luxury tax threshold, give or take. Some of that needs to be saved for injury call-ups and September call-ups. I think Warren is better than Lynn, but what I think doesn’t matter, plus Lynn can start. Warren can’t. The Yankees added more length to the pitching staff today.

Right on schedule, the Yankees are said to be “monitoring” the market for Lance Lynn

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(Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

Pitchers and catchers report to Tampa today, after four months of offseason in which the Yankees were connected to pretty much every worthwhile pitcher. Trade candidates, free agents, you name it. The rumors have almost been systemic. Like we’re going down a line and seeing the Yankees connected to the available pitcher du jour.

Over the weekend, it was Lance Lynn’s turn. Jon Morosi says the Yankees are “monitoring” the market for the 30-year-old right-hander but — you guessed it — the luxury tax plan is an obstacle. From Morosi:

With Darvish — and Todd Frazier — having signed elsewhere, the Yankees’ free-agent options are coming into focus. They have monitored Lynn’s marketplace this offseason, but it’s unclear if they can fit him into the roughly $15 million they have budgeted for spending between now and Opening Day. The Yankees’ payroll is not yet close to the $197 million luxury-tax threshold, but general manager Brian Cashman wants to allow flexibility for Trade Deadline moves.

The Cubs signed Yu Darvish over the weekend and I suppose that could mean the pitching floodgates are about to open, especially now that Spring Training has started. I imagine players are starting to get a little antsy. They want to know where they’re going to live and play this season (and future seasons). So do their families.

I examined Lynn back at the trade deadline and, for the most part, everything I said then still applies now. He finished the season quite strong, throwing 84 innings with a 3.21 ERA (4.35 FIP) in the second half. Those numbers hide a decline in strikeout rate (22.0% to 17.1%) and walk rate (9.0% to 11.3%) from the first half, for what it’s worth.

Now that Darvish is off the board, it feels like the rest of the pitching market will fall into place. Lynn and Alex Cobb wind up with the Brewers and Twins, two teams looking for pitching but probably aren’t in position to win a bidding war for Jake Arrieta. I feels to me that Arrieta is heading to the Nationals, where all Scott Boras clients struggling to find jobs seem to land.

The Darvish and Lorenzo Cain contracts show that while so many free agents have had to wait (and are still waiting) to sign, they’re not necessarily taking discounts. Cain and Darvish signed for deals right in line with projections. Pitching is always in demand and, because of that, I expect Lynn (and Cobb) to sign for pretty good money at some point. Not at a big discount. Some contract projections for Lynn:

That is Ervin Santana money (four years, $54M) and not quite Ian Kennedy (five years, $72M) or Mike Leake (five years, $80M) money, which makes sense to me. Last season was Lynn’s first year back from Tommy John surgery. Kennedy and Leake were among the most durable pitchers in the game when they signed their contracts.

The Yankees have about $22M total to spend under the $197M luxury tax threshold, though they have to set something aside for midseason additions, and that number will reportedly be $10M. That leaves them with $12M or so to spend now. And hey, that might be enough to get Lynn! The projections have him at $14M to $15M annually. A little massaging could get it down to $12M.

Money is not the only cost of acquiring Lynn, however. He rejected the qualifying offer, and since the Yankees paid luxury tax last year, they will have to surrender their second and fifth round draft picks, as well as $1M in international bonus money to sign him. I’d rather give up that package than my first round pick like the old days, though it is not an insignificant cost.

The Yankees clearly want another pitcher, and a good one at that. Enough to spend basically all their remaining non-midseason addition payroll space and give up two draft picks (and international bonus money) to sign Lynn? Maybe! He’s pitched for a contending team pretty much his entire career and has done well enough in postseason games, and the Yankees value that to some degree. Lynn isn’t Darvish, but he is pretty good.

Weirdly, this is going to come down to a bidding war, a bidding war where the Yankees are at a disadvantage. They were never going to be a serious player for Yu Darvish given the luxury tax plan. They can make a run at Lynn though. It’s just a question of whether they’re willing to dip into their midseason addition money to outbid the Brewers and Twins and whoever else.