It was only a matter of time. Last week Brian Cashman was asked about the Yankees’ interest in Japanese right-hander Shohei Otani, and the GM predictably played coy. “We look at everything internationally, as well as domestically, but he’s under control of another club. So I couldn’t speak to him, but we’re always watching everything that takes place around the world to the best of our abilities,” he said to Brendan Kuty.
Otani, 21, is the best pitcher in the world not under contract with an MLB team. He had a 2.24 ERA with a 31.6% strikeout rate and a 7.4% walk rate in 160.2 innings for the Nippon Ham Fighters last year, and keep in mind hitters focus much more on putting the ball in play in Japan than they do in MLB. The league average strikeout rate last season was 18.1%. It was 20.4% in MLB.
Otani and the (Ham) Fighters were in Arizona training a few weeks ago, giving teams a chance to see him without having to cross the pond. Eric Longenhagen (subs. req’d) gave this scouting report:
Overall, Ohtani’s fastball was clocked anywhere from 91 and 99 mph, featuring some two-seam sinking action at the low end of that spectrum. He does it effortlessly and with good extension, which makes the pitch look as though it’s erupting from his hand right on top of the plate. He showed four pitches in the outing. His fastball is comfortably plus, the aforementioned curveball is above average and projects to plus while the splitter and lollipop, low-70s curveball were both below average.
(His name has been spelled Otani and Ohtani over the years, and apparently the back of his jersey said Ohtani in Arizona a few weeks back.)
Keep in mind this was what amounts to Spring Training outing, so Otani was not in midseason form. Longenhagen noted Otani is incredibly athletic — he used to play the outfield on days he didn’t pitch, but that stopped last season — and his splitter should develop into a pitch that grades out as “much higher” than average because of his arm speed. So you’ve got a big fastball, an above-average breaking ball, and a promising split-finger pitch. Sounds good to me. Here’s video of one of Otani’s recent Arizona outings. Again, this was essentially a Spring Training start:
Anyway, yes there’s always the risk of injury, but as long as the current posting system is in place, it makes sense for the (Ham) Fighters to hold onto Otani a few more years. They had the second best record in Japan last season, so I assume they have talent on their roster beyond Otani. The team could hold onto their ace right-hander and try to win the third Japan Series title in franchise history. (They won in 1962 and 2006, and lost in the finals in 1981, 2007, 2008, and 2012.)
The Yankees have a lot of money coming off the books the next few seasons — that includes Masahiro Tanaka potentially opting out of his contract in two years — clearing the way for the Yankees to spend big on someone like Otani. He’s young, the consensus is he is a budding MLB ace, and he will be available for nothing but money. A lot of money, but only money. The Yankees have long-term pitching needs too. All of their current starters can become free agents within two years except Luis Severino.
For now, Otani is a name worth knowing even if it appears he is years away from coming over to MLB, not months.
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