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And then there was one

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Boone Logan tosses during Spring Training. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

After last night’s victory over the Washington Nationals — a playoff preview if ever I saw one — the Yankees cut five more players from their ever-dwindling Spring Training roster. As the Yankees now have 26 guys for 25 spots left in camp, we’re quickly seeing how the team is operating this spring. Their next decision, one Joe Girardi says will be announced later today, will determine the Yanks’ pitching staff for the start of the season.

The cuts were, by and large, as expected. Jonathan Albaladejo and his 33.75 March ERA found themselves exiled to the Minors while Mark Melancon and his 10:1 Grapefruit League K:BB ratio were sent down as well. Melancon should be the first guy called up if the pen needs some right-handed relief. Greg Golson, a toolsy outfielder and former first-rounder, impressed during the spring but will start the year at AAA. Juan Miranda, potential trade bait or potential back-up DH, will as well.

With those cuts in hand, the Yanks picked a back-up infielder as well. The final battle came down to a deathmatch between Ramiro Peña and Kevin Russo. While Peña enjoyed the luxuries of incumbency as the back-up middle infielder, Russo offered up a better bat. He hit .333/.393/.458 during the spring, but his glove isn’t on par with Peña’s. And so the Yankees have chosen to go with Ramiro for now. Russo could see some time in the Majors later this year.

But what of the players who are left? That’s where things get interesting. Of those signed to Major League deals, the outfielders will be Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Randy Winn and Nick Swisher. Marcus Thames is expected to make the team as well. Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Ramiro Peña and Nick Johnson will be the infield crew with Jorge Posada and Francisco Cervelli behind the dish. That’s 13.

The pitchers left in camp also number 13 as Chad Gaudin was released and will not be coming north with the team, obviously. Who will be cut? The likely 26th man is Boone Logan. A lefty who came over in the Javier Vazquez trade from the Braves, Logan has thrown seven pretty good innings this year. He has allowed two runs on three hits and a walk while striking out five, and the team would feel comfortable about using him as a second lefty in the pen.

Yet, there is also this looming matter of the fifth starter. If, as we suspect, Phil Hughes is announced as the fifth starter later today, the Yankees will have a choice. In fact, even if Joba Chamberlain, and not Hughes, is announced as the fifth starter, the Yankees will have the same choice. Do they start the season with the loser of the fifth starter race in the bullpen as a potential set-up man or in AAA as the team’s sixth starter? Sending the odd man out down to AAA would allow the Yanks to keep Logan on the team as a second southpaw, and it would allow the Yanks to stretch out Hughes or Chamberlain to keep them on track to meet their innings goals.

I’m holding out hope, perversely, for a minor league assignment for the sixth starter. The future of the team will benefit greatly if neither pitcher is encumbered with an innings limit. Joe Girardi says this final announcement will be made later today, and only then will we finally see what developmental course the Yankees have charted for their young arms. Boone Logan might just be the beneficiary of a team looking not only to 2010 but also beyond.

Single-game tickets on sale this Friday

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One of the questions most frequently asked of us concerns the Yanks’ single-game ticket sales. “When will it be?” fans wonder from December until nearly Opening Day. Well, the wait is over, As the Yankees announced via Twitter this afternoon, a limited number of single-game tickets will go on sale this Friday at noon via Yankees.com and Ticketmaster by phone. Next Wednesday, March 24, tickets will be available at the Yankee Stadium ticket windows, Ticketmaster outlets and Yankee Clubhouse Stores. The team hasn’t said how many tickets are available, but based on the number of season ticket packages sold, it won’t be many.

The initial over/under American League

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Who’s smarter: baseball projection systems such as PECOTA and CHONE or good old fashioned Las Vegas sports books? It’s an interesting question to ponder in an age in which statistical analysis has taken center stage in the game, and the two options are one side of the same coin. Out of Las Vegas’ efforts to predict, via smart wagers, sports outcomes arose statistical analysis and more advanced projection systems.

I pose this question today because a few of the bigger sports books have released their initial over/under lines for the 2010 baseball season. Vegas Watch has the full league table, and I’ve broken down the American League by division. The Yankees, as you’ll see, win the over/under AL East but only by a hair.

AL East
Yankees – 94.5
Boston – 94
Tampa Bay – 89.5
Baltimore – 72.5
Toronto – 71

AL Central
Chicago – 82
Minnesota – 82
Detroit – 81
Cleveland – 73
Kansas City – 71

AL West
LAnaheim – 84
Seattle – 83
Texas – 83
Oakland – 78

In perusing this table late last night, I was struck by how few of these win totals I would bet on right now. When a team’s over/under lines up with the bettor’s estimated wins for that team, it’s a bad bet. Would you take the “over” on the Yanks and hope for a 95+ win season amidst a very competitive AL East? The initial line on the Yanks last year was 97.5, and I doubt many people took the “over” in February, March or even April.

I’m further intrigued by the relatively weak AL Central and West divisions. At first glance, we wouldn’t assume that two division winners would be pegged at win totals in the low 80s. After all, the Angels won 97 games last year, and even the Twins topped their 2010 line by four victories through 162 games. In fact, the AL hasn’t sent two sub-90 win teams to the playoffs since 1998 when both the Indians and Rangers failed to top 89 victories. Yet, of the teams pegged to compete for those division titles, I would place a bet only the Rangers, and then, I’d be inclined to take the over. Texas should have a team better than 83 wins, especially in a division as weak as the West.

Right now, though, these lines are published to encourage bets, and they don’t represent the true Vegas predictions. For every $1000 placed, the lines will move half a point. If one team’s win total is grossly under-predicted, the line will quickly move upward to compensate as bettors take the over, and that’s where the crowd-vs.-computer debate takes over. As the lines shift and settle over the next few weeks, can early season oddsmakers and those willing to place bets beat the projection systems? The results should look fairly congruous by year’s end.

In my heart, I want to take the over on the Yankees, and David Pinto wants the under on Boston due to the team’s injury risk. But odds are good the AL East will be a dogfight. First team to 96 wins takes the crown.

Here’s your obligatory disclaimer: These lines and my thoughts are for entertainment purposes only. Don’t bet on baseball with my advice in mind, and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.

What the Good Book says: Yankee pitchers

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With the arrival of Baseball Prospectus 2010 at my doorstep on Friday, I spent some time yesterday look at the Yankee hitters and how PECOTA projects them to perform this season. While these are rough estimates of the team’s performance, they’re indicative of the trends many experts expect to see emerge from the Bronx.

After highlighting the Yanks’ offense yesterday, I’m going to look at the pitchers today. For the starters, I’ll present W-L, IP, K, BB, ERA and SIERA projections. For more on SIERA, read through the five-part explanation at BP or Joe’s introduction from the 17th. Let’s dive in.

CC Sabathia — 15-10, 219 IP, 183 K, 55 BB, 3.66 ERA, 3.58 SIERA
As expected, the Baseball Prospectus experts highlight Sabathia’s workload. He’s a horse who “works deep into games.” He has “handled it before and seems a safe bet to do again.” He’s projected to start 32 games this year, and his win-total projections seem to be a handful on the low side. I’d expect nothing but a good season from CC this year.

A.J. Burnett — 11-11, 193 IP, 175 K, 81 BB, 4.57 ERA, 3.85 SIERA
PECOTA is always bearish on pitchers, and Burnett’s line here is no exception. If the Yanks’ second starter is pitching to a .500 record and a 4.57 ERA, the team might be in trouble. BP calls “the biggest triumph of his season” the fact that he stayed healthy and focuses on the disparities between what we call Good A.J. and Bad A.J. Depending upon how one characterizes it, Good A.J.’s ERA is more than five runs per game lower than Bad A.J.’s. He’ll probably soon be greatly overpaid.

Andy Pettitte — 10-11, 180 IP, 116 K, 64 BB, 4.70 ERA, 4.58 SIERA
BP’s final sentence on Andy Pettitte sums up my expectations for Andy’s 2010 campaign. “Pettitte seems a safe bet to give the Yankees another year of solid if unspectacular keep-’em-in-the-game pitching.” He’ll turn 38 this year, and his velocity has begun to dip as any 38 year old pitcher’s does. I always wonder if this is the year that age and a cranky elbow keep Pettitte down, but the Yanks have the depth to weather that happening.

Javier Vazquez — 14-11, 203 IP, 180 K, 54 BB, 3.85 ERA, 3.47 SIERA
I have him listed as the Yanks’ fourth starter, but if he duplicates his PECOTA projection, he would be in line to serve as the Yanks’ second starter this season. BP predicts an uptick in home runs allowed, but he’s a good bet for a lot of innings and a good number of strike outs. As BP says, at the price it cost the Yanks to land him, his return to the AL was a risk “very much worth taking.”

Joba Chamberlain — 9-10, 159 IP, 150 K, 67 BB, 4.45 ERA, 3.75 SIERA
When it comes to Joba Chamberlain, whoever wrote BP’s capsule reviews did not mince words. “What a mess,” they say. “It’s possible that no pitcher in the history of baseball has suffered through as many team-inflicted head games as Chamerlain has.” As I wrote on Friday, I find that to be a load of poppycock. It’s the media’s fault, although the Yanks shoulder some of the blame. BP expects Joba to wind up in bullpen with the arrival of Javier Vazquez, but someone has to hold down the fifth starter job. It’s Joba’s to lose.

Phil Hughes — 7-5, 103 IP, 90 K, 41 BB, 4.07 ERA, 3.90 SIERA
PECOTA has a problem with young pitchers who don’t have a long record of Major League pitching and have been wildly inconsistent. The system projects just 19 starts and 34 appearances for Hughes, but unless he gets injured or the Yanks pigeonhole him into the bullpen, he’ll far exceed 103 innings this year. The Yanks need Hughes to be more than a one-inning pitcher at this point in his career, and where he ends up out of Spring Training is anyone’s guess.

Mariano Rivera — 4-3, 57 IP, 54 K, 15 BB, 3.53 ERA, 3.19 SIERA
When it comes to Mariano Rivera and PECOTA, I just sit back and laugh. The Good Book has him pegged for 22 saves in 58 games. Rivera’s career low in saves is 28, and the BP Experts freely admit the problematic projection. In the past, they have termed Rivera to be “otherworldy,” and they note that he has “shut down everyone else, so why not Father Time?” At some point, he’ll decline or he’ll just retire. That point probably won’t be now.

Beyond those pitchers, it’s not really worth delving into the projections. BP likes Damaso Marte’s chances for a rebound year and David Robertson’s role as a potential set-up guy while PECOTA is cool on departed Yankees Phil Coke and Brian Bruney or Chien-Ming Wang’s chances of recovery. The bullpen remains a bit volatile for now, but that’s the way the Yankees like it. They have enough young arms to plug the gap.

I personally have never been too in love with the way PECOTA projects pitchers across the board. The system seems to consistently underproject the top starters, and I’m not just saying that because the Yanks’ pitching numbers aren’t as stellar as we would like to be. There’s a certain volatility in projecting pitchers because they can be so injury-prone and much of what they do depends upon the defense behind him. Still, this is food for thought on a Sunday afternoon in February.

What the Good Book says: Yankee hitters

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I arrived home last night at a little after 1 a.m. fully intending to go sleep, but when I walked into my building, I discovered with delight that my review copy of Baseball Prospectus 2010 had arrived. Sleep would have to wait. I spent around 45 minutes pouring through the latest edition of BP’s guide. Complete with PECOTA projections and pithy comments, the guide is, as always, an indispensable part of Spring Training.

Instead of droning on and on about the virtues of the book — or dwelling on the choice to go with a pea green cover this year — I’d rather just have some fun with it. Over the new few days, we’ll dive into the meaty part of the analysis offered by the Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts, but this weekend, I’ll bring you some selected projections and my comments. For what it’s worth, BP thinks the Yankees are “in a very good position to repeat.”

We’ll start today with some offensive lines and cover the pitcher’s projections tomorrow. Baseball Prospectus 2010 will be available in stores on February 22 and is already available for sale at Amazon.

Derek Jeter — .286/.359/.401 VORP: 20 WARP 1.6
PECOTA is bearish on Derek Jeter simply because, as the book says, “only a handful of shortstops 35 or older have had great offensive seasons.” One of those shortstops was 35-year-old Derek Jeter, but his comps don’t scream out success at similar ages. If Derek can continue to defy aging, he’ll far exceed this conservative projection. If he matches the projection in his walk year, not only will be he worst professional season, but the Yanks will have some tough choices to make as well.

Nick Johnson — .279/.421/.423 VORP: 21.4 WARP: 2.3
As always, Nick Johnson’s biggest question marks surround his health. BP is critical of his ability to stay healthy, someting they call a skill “Johnson doesn’t have.” They wonder if the Yanks can “keep him on the field for 150 games,” but as a DH, he won’t suffer through the wear-and-tear of playing first. He’ll also have a nice Interleague Play-inspired vacation in June. On the bright side, PECOTA pegs him for 466 plate appearances.

Mark Teixeira — .294/.395/.541 VORP: 43.3 WARP: 5.0
Need I say much here? Basically, PECOTA expects Teixeira, playing his age 30 season, to duplicate his age 29 year. That’s not an unreasonable expectation, and if Teixeira can avoid a painfully slow start, he could be even better. PECOTA projects 35 home runs for the Yanks’ number three hitter.

Alex Rodriguez — .282/.388/.532 VORP: 39.4 WARP: 4.4
In all likelihood, A-Rod will outplay his projection. PECOTA pegs him for just 532 plate appearances because he’s playing his age 34 season and missed considerable time, albeit with a one-time injury, last year. BP calls him “one of the most valuable and essential players in the game,” but as the rest of us do, they question whether he’ll “justify every year of his contract.”

Jorge Posada — .263/.355/.445 VORP: 16.7 WARP: 1.6
The key stat here for Posada is the way PECOTA pegs him as a prime candidate for a collapse. He’ll turn 39 in mid-August, and his collapse rate is an alarming 37 percent. Comfortingly, though, his attrition rate is nearly the same. We’ll probably see something of a decline from Posada, but hopefully, it’s closer to an attrition dip than an all-out collapse. The Yanks are penciling him in for 120 games behind the plate. That might be optimistic, but BP is high on Francisco Cervelli’s defense as a caddy to Jorge.

Nick Swisher — .248/.370/.470 VORP: 26.2 WARP: 2.7
BP isn’t high on Swisher’s personality. They say he is “not master of his mental domain” and is far from “a frustration-free ballplayer.” But he excels at taking pitchers and working walks. He went to a full count in 22 percent of his plate appearances, fifth best in basebal, and his projected IsoD is topped only by Nick Johnson. If Swisher can get his head more into the game, he could have a breakout year.

Curtis Granderson — .268/.351/.491 VORP: 35.2 WARP: 4.4
For what it’s worth, PECOTA pegs Johnny Damon, playing for the Yanks next year, to hit .272/.360/.433 with 17 home runs. Granderson is projected to hit 28 home runs and play a far superior defense to Damon’s. More alarming, says BP, are his struggles against lefties, and the Yanks “should be prepared for the possibility that he’ll need a platoon mate.”

Robinson Cano — .295/.343/.483 VORP: 27.8 WARP: 3.4
Cano, says BP, is “far better as setting the table than cleaning it.” He ranked 141st in RBI percentage and hasn’t been a productive player with men in scoring position for the duration of his career. If he could get on base more, the Yanks would probably bat him higher in the order to minimize his potentially rally-killing ABs. Still, he is a “flawed but valuable player” and could out-play his projection, which is weighted down by his terrible 2008.

Brett Gardner — .266/.356/.378 VORP: 13.4 WARP: 1.5
Says BP, “Gardner’s speed on the bases and in the field merits another long look.” That sums up Brett Gardner. He’s not going to need to carry the club, and if he can get on base 35-37 percent of the time while improving his baserunning smarts, the Yanks will be happy. As for the other guys, PECOTA predicted a .231/.299/.447 line from Marcus Thames in Detroit. BP calls him “as one-dimensional a player as you’ll find in the majors.” Randy Winn is expected to hit .270/.334/.384 in San Francisco. Jamie Hoffmann, labeled “a curious selection by the Yankees as the first pick in the Rule 5 draft,” could hit .261/.332/.399. Pick your poison.

Working to control the 2010 innings load

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CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett both reached career highs in innings pitched in 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

By the time Robinson Cano fielded a Shane Victorino ground ball and tossed it to Mark Teixeira to end the 2009 World Series, the Yankees’ starting pitchers had thrown a lot of innings. For nearly a month, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett had been making high-stress October starts, and the innings kept mounting. Keeping these key arms fresh, then, has now become a primary concern for the Yanks this spring.

The horses were ridden hard in October and November. After throwing 230 regular season innings, Sabathia tacked on another 36.1 in October, far surpassing his career high. A.J. Burnett tossed 207 regular season innings and added another 27.1 in the postseason. His previous career high was 221.1, a mark he reached in 2008. Andy Pettitte, the October veteran of the group, threw 194.2 regular season innings and another 30.2 in October. He hadn’t surpassed the 225-inning mark since 2005. These guys threw long and hard in high pressure situations.

As Spring Training begins, Joe Girardi knows that his pitchers worked a lot last season. Today, while addressing the media, Girardi spoke about physically preparing his pitchers for another long season. “We figured we could ease all these guys into it,” the Yanks’ skipper said. “We wanted to make sure that they’re absolutely physically prepared to go out and have that same type of workload.”

The Yankees are going to proceed slowly with their hurlers. They won’t ask the pitchers to overtax themselves in Spring Training. CC Sabathia, the ace, will throw his first full bullpen session on Saturday, and the others will follow suit as though lining up the rotation for the regular season. A.J. will toss on Sunday, Pettitte Monday and Javier Vazquez, the new guy, will take his turn on Tuesday. It’s a smart move for the Yankees.

Why the care and kid gloves? Well, a 2007 Washington Post article about the Chicago White Sox helps to put it all into perspective. As Dave Sheinin noted then and as the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays can tell you, teams that go deep into the postseason one year often see their pitchers regress the next. Wrote Sheinin, “Of the 30 pitchers who threw 240 or more innings in a season between 2001 and ’05, the vast majority (21 pitchers, or 70 percent) saw their ERAs rise the following season — and 11 of them experienced a jump of at least one full run. Still others experienced arm injuries the year after their high-workload season.”

And so the Yankees will be careful. They have a lot riding on their pitching staff. Besides the $72.75 million invested into their four top starters, the Yankees are going to need to have these guys be on top of their games to fend off the Red Sox and the Rays. The team knows this, and as Spring Training begins, so too do the innings concerns.

FOX set to air seven Yankee games in ’10

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The good folks at FOX have released their 2010 slate of baseball games, and for Yankee fans who have no desire to hear more of Tim McCarver and Joe Buck than is necessary, the news is not comforting. The Yankees will appear on FOX seven times this season, and two of those games will be dreaded Saturday night baseball games. I can think of few people with whom I would rather not spend my Saturday night than McCarver and Buck.

“We’ve been thinking about taking a few of our afternoon dates to prime time dates for quite some time now, and this season’s schedule is so strong that the time seemed right,” FOX Sports President Ed Goren said in a press release. “There is still no platform that has the reach of prime time broadcast television.”

I personally can’t stand Saturday night baseball games. Especially during the summer months, baseball is a game meant to be played during the day on weekends under the bright sun and a blue sky. Maybe that’s the romantic baseball nostalgia in me talking, but I’d rather spend my weekend days watching games and my weekend nights doing something else entirely. As always, baseball has put itself and its game start times at the mercy of its TV partners.

Anyway, mini-rant aside, these are your Yankees games set to appear on FOX this year. All games are on Saturdays and start at 4:05 p.m. unless otherwise noted: April 10 @ Tampa Bay (3:05 p.m.); April 24 @ Angels; May 8 at Boston (3:05 p.m.); May 22 @ Mets (7:05 p.m.); June 26 @ Dodgers (7:05 p.m.); July 17 vs. Tampa Bay; and August 7 vs. Boston. The full MLB on FOX schedule can be found right here.