They Yankees could, if they were so inclined, enter the 2010 season without adding another starting pitcher. After bringing back Andy Pettitte, they have five starting pitchers in him, CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain, and Phil Hughes. Since they continue to see Hughes and Chamberlain as starters, they might want to let both of them, entering their age-24 seasons, to start the season in the rotation. Yet both have struggled at times as starters, and the team might want to bring in a veteran to add some competition in Spring Training.

John Lackey sits atop the free agent market, and could be a potential solution. Even in years when he has missed time with injuries, as he has the past few years, he’s still thrown over 160 innings. He’d slot into the rotation behind Burnett, moving Pettitte to four and allowing for a competition between Hughes and Chamberlain for five. By adding Lackey, the Yankees would certainly bolster their rotation. But that doesn’t come without drawbacks.

While he probably won’t get it, Lackey wants more years and dollars than A.J. Burnett. No one gets more than they ask for, so we can expect Lackey’s price to drop, probably right into the Burnett range. That would represent the third long-term pitching contract the Yankees will have handed out in the past two off-seasons. I’m not sure they’re so inclined to do that, especially with a second pitcher who has shown something of an injury streak. And that’s before the payroll implications.

Another path the Yankees could explore is a high-risk starter — someone with a high ceiling but who has battled injury problems over the past few years. These pitchers will not command nearly the years or dollars of Lackey, so if they don’t fulfill their promise in 2010, teams aren’t on the hook for future years and dollars. The 2009-2010 free agent class features a number of these, though their numbers are already dwindling.

At the Winter Meetings on Wednesday, the Texas Rangers signed Rich Harden to a one-year, $7.5 million contract. It will pay him $6.5 million in 2010 with a chance to earn $3.5 million in incentives. The extra million comes as a buyout of a 2011 option of $11 million. Now that the first risky starter has dropped, perhaps the market will become more clear. That could be good for the Yankees, who have contacted Casey Close, agent for Ben Sheets (also, Derek Jeter). Harden’s deal might give them a better idea of what to expect from Sheets contract-wise.

For his part, Sheets doesn’t want to take a paycut from his 2008 salary, which was $12 million. It’s unlikely any team offers Sheets that much money guaranteed, but hey, he won’t get more than he asks for. That $12 million could provide a good basis for an incentive-laden contract, much like Harden’s.

The knock on Sheets is that he missed all of 2009 with a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow. It’s another in a long line of injuries, though he’s really had only one arm injury in the past, a shoulder issue that recurred not long after he returned from it. Even so, he might be less of an injury risk than Harden. Over the past three seasons (and remember, Sheets missed all of the last one), Sheets has pitched 339.2 innings. In that span, Harden threw 314.2 innings.

Chances are, it will take more than the Harden deal to acquire Sheets, but probably not much more. As ESPN’s Keith Law notes, “the year off may do him wonders, as he’s had a lot of non-arm injuries that have limited his workload for the past few years, and he was never terrible when pitching at less than 100 percent.” So how can we take that information, along with Harden’s contract, and make a fair proposal?

I’m sure Brian Cashman is on the case. Signing John Lackey will mean a huge commitment in years and dollars, and trading for Roy Halladay will mean a huge commitment in prospects (plus, possibly years and dollars). Sheets is a shorter-term option who has plenty of upside. More upside, probably, than Harden, if for no other reason than Sheets walks about half the batters Harden does. Would a one-year contract with $8 million guaranteed, plus incentives to push that around $12, $13 million, with a vesting option, work? Here’s to hoping. That would be a value on the free agent contract, and leave the Yanks a bit of flexibility to upgrade left field.

Every year there are a few free agents who were once good, but who have succumbed to injury. They’re a baseball fan’s dream. We imagine the best of all possible worlds, an incentive laden contract that protects against loss and maximizes reward. If only the front office were smart enough to understand that, they’d have a great pitcher. Alas, only one team gets the player, and it’s usually not our favorite one.

This year’s free agent class features three of these pitchers. Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, and Ben Sheets should all be fine for Opening Day 2010, but each had trouble staying healthy in 2009. At their best they’re all very good pitchers, but because of the health questions they probably won’t cash in this off-season. That is, unless there’s a reason to believe that the injury concern isn’t too great.

Ben Sheets is a familiar name to Yankees fans. He was one of the top free agent pitchers last year, and therefore was on the Yankees radar. Before he revealed the severity of his elbow injury, Sheets was considered an alternative to A.J. Burnett — and he might even have been the better choice. After surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow, Sheets played the waiting game, but ultimately did not pitch in 2009.

This could be a good thing, says Keith Law.

The year off may do him wonders, as he’s had a lot of non-arm injuries that have limited his workload for the past few years, and he was never terrible when pitching at less than 100 percent. So as this type of pitcher goes, he’s a pretty good value; not much downside with the upside of a No. 2 starter who might give you 160-180 innings.

In comparing Sheets to Burnett last off-season, Mike listed Sheets’s injury history. Law is right that Sheets has suffered many non-arm injuries, including a viral and ear infection in 2005, a torn lat in the same year, and a sprained middle finger in 2007. His most serious arm injury was a right shoulder strain in 2006, which kept him on the DL barely more than the minimum, but which also came up a month later, causing him to miss more than two months.

The latest injury is of concern, of course, raises concern because it was an arm injury. A torn flexor tendon isn’t considered as serious as a torn ligament, but it’s still an arm injury. Some teams just can’t afford to take that risk, even for a pitcher like Sheets. That will depress his market value a bit, but I’m not sure he’ll be a true bargain. There are plenty of teams that could use a pitcher like him, and I think it might mean a higher base salary and fewer incentives.

Even if other teams aren’t offering a high base, the Yankees might have to. As Tyler Kepner notes, the price on Sheets “would probably be low enough that the Yankees could afford to outbid other teams.” That’s the way things usually work with the Yankees. They have money and everyone knows it. So when the Yankees want a player that other teams want, they sometimes have to pay a premium. It’s one reason why the Yankees payroll is so high, but that’s a topic for another day.

Ben Sheets would be a great addition to any team. His injury history, and especially his latest one, make him a bigger risk than others, but his upside is perhaps the best on the free agent market. The Yankees liked Sheets when they met with him last off-season, and could certainly pursue him again this year. He’d be a gamble, and the Yankees might have to pay a premium for him, but if it works out the 2010 staff will be greatly strengthened.

Not even three weeks ago, teams were concerned with Ben Sheets’s shoulder. Sometime between now and then Sheets updated his medical profile, and this “may have sparked some renewed interest” in his services. I find this hard to believe. It all sounds a little too vague.

First: “may have sparked some renewed interest”? No, it hasn’t definitively sparked some renewed interest. It may have sparked some renewed interest. Is this a guess? Is it an assumption that because Sheets sent around his medical records that they’re going to be better than before? Either way it doesn’t sound like much more than a report that Ben Sheets sent around new medical records.

The question is, what are they looking for? Is it the shoulder problem Olney discussed earlier this month, or is it the muscle he tore in his pitching elbow? Why am I asking so many questions?

Maybe this will help Texas justify the risk of signing him. They met with him this week, and they seem to be the team most strongly connected with him. On the podcast I said Sheets to the Mets, but that’s looking unlikely. Heyman also reports that the Mets have made and offer to Oliver Perez.

(In more vague terms, he says that the Mets “are believed to have improved their original thought, which was for about $30 million over three years.” Original thought? Man.)

I guess the Yanks involvement depends on what Texas does. Even with improved medicals, it’s tough to justify doing this without heavy incentives. I think we could see Sheets sign with the Rangers, Perez sign with the Mets, and Pettitte sign with the Yankees in the next week or so. Pitchers and catchers in 21 days, and time’s a wastin’.