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Talking ’bout my generational talent

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While pondering our recent discussion on Derek Jeter’s future yesterday, I posed a question to the legions of River Ave. Blues’ Twitter followers. Who’s easier to replace, I asked, Derek Jeter or Mariano Rivera?

This question was not, by any means, posed idly. It had its origins in a questionable statement by The Post’s Joel Sherman — a shocking concept, I know. In discussing the four members of the Yanks’ old guard, Sherman wondered how to replace them. “The falloff,” he wrote, “from Jeter to Ramiro Pena, Rivera to either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes, Pettitte to Chad Gaudin or Alfredo Aceves, and Posada to Francisco Cervelli remains pretty steep.” There’s no denying that the falloff from either Posada to Cervell or from Jeter to Pena is incredibly steep, but for the other two players, Sherman’s statement rang dubious.

Meanwhile, Brian Cashman seemed to echo Sherman to a point. In explaining why the Yankees won’t negotiate with their free agents before they hit free agency, Cashman had this to say to the Daily News: What’s the difference between him and Mariano? Is Derek any more important than Mariano? Is that a message we want to send? We have legacy-type people and we have a policy in place. Everyone understands it and it’s not an issue.” I understand overall point, but the difference between Derek and Mariano is not a small one. And thus a Twitter poll was born.

The responses I received were widely divergent. Apparently, Yankee fans love, adore and admire Mariano Rivera across the board, and many of them said that Rivera would be tougher to replace than Jeter. When the Twitter reply dust settled, the final tally stood with 20 people saying Rivera is easier to replace and 16 saying that Jeter is easier to replace. Three people said that Rivera was easier to replace during the regular season but that Jeter was easier to replace than Rivera is during the playoffs because Rivera’s postseason value is through the roof.

So we’ll start this analysis by examining Rivera’s and Jeter’s contributions since 1996. Derek has played in 2138 games for the Yanks, third most in franchise history, while Rivera has appeared in 917, tops among Yankee pitchers all-time. Innings-wise, Jeter has the edge. Not counting the 14 times, he’s DH’d, Derek has spent 18440.1 innings the field for the Yanks while Rivera has 1090 innings pitched under his belt. Astute readers will know where this is going.

With the help of WAR, we can better see how Rivera and Jeter impact the Yankees. Since 2002 — the earliest date Fangraphs presents for WAR — Rivera has put together a 19.4 WAR while Jeter has contributed a 40.3 mark. Jeter’s lowest WAR mark is a 3.7; Rivera’s highest a 3.1. Mo might be the greatest, but he’s still just a reliever.

In terms of replacing one or the other, there’s little doubt in my mind that Jeter is harder to replace. Last year, in fact, Jeter’s WAR led all short stops, and the drop-off is steep. Ryan Theriot and Miguel Tejada, 11th and 12th on the list, put up marks of 2.8 and 2.6 respectively. Rivera’s relief translated into a 2.0 WAR, sixth best among relievers, but the drop-off is less steep. Alfredo Aceves, for instance, put together a 1.2 WAR. The Yankees, meanwhile, have someone who was more valuable as a reliever than Rivera during the regular season last year. Phil Hughes’ relief WAR was 2.1. All of a sudden that drop-off isn’t so steep.

In the end, this analysis is clouded by the post-season. Mariano Rivera stands head and shoulders above every other postseason reliever, but then again, in 637 October plate appearances, Jeter has hit .313/.383/.479. It’s tough to find that from anyone, let alone a starting short stop.

As both players near free agency for possibly the last time in their respective careers, the Yankees are going to have to mull replacing them at some point. While the two are a long way from retiring, it’s still a scary and depressing thought for fans used to seeing Rivera and Jeter there everyday. Make no mistake about it though: When push comes to shove, it will be much harder to replace Derek Jeter than it will be Mariano Rivera. And that’s coming from someone who worships at the Temple of Mo.

Derek Jeter has more power to right than Albert Pujols

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For Derek Jeter, taking the ball to right field is an art. Even as I write this sentence, three months removed from live baseball, I can picture the swing. Jeter takes his stride, closes his shoulders, extends his arms, and slaps an outside pitch between the first and second basemen for a single. Sometimes he pokes it down the line for a double. Other times he gets a pitch that catches too much of the plate and he sends it over the short porch in right. No matter the result it still looks pretty, even most of the outs.


Can you guess what this is a picture of?

Thanks to FanGraphs splits, we can see exactly how good Derek Jeter is on balls hit to right field. It comes as no surprise that in 2009 he was excellent. He put 164 balls in play to right field, dunking in 46 for singles, slapping 11 doubles and a triple, and hitting 12 home runs (which, as a reminder, do not count as ball in play). That’s a .398 batting average. Moreover, it’s a .676 SLG, adding up to a .278 ISO and a 1.074 OPS. Those are pretty excellent marks, especially for a right-handed hitter going the opposite way. It made me wonder how other right-handed hitters fared.

The first name that came to mind, of course, was Albert Pujols. He’s been the best player in baseball for a few years now, so I assumed that this resulted from his ability to hit to all fields. Yet, after checking the numbers I was a bit surprised. Yes, Pujols demonstrates power to all fields, and he does hit the ball to left better than right. That’s to be expected. But on ball hit to right field he’s no match for the mighty Jeter. Pujols has a .305 BA against a .537 SLG for an ISO of .232. That’s good, but it’s not Jeter. For our purposes, we’ll conveniently ignore the vast discrepancy in their pull numbers.

What about other prolific righty sluggers? Mark Reynolds of the Diamondbacks posted a .260/.349/.543 line overall, good for a .284 ISO. To right field he posted a .333 BA and a .611 SLG, a .278 ISO that matches Jeter’s. I’d still hand Jeter the edge here 1) because of his BA and 2) because he did it in nearly twice the opportunities — Reynolds had only 91 plate appearances in which he put a ball into right field, while Jeter had 176.

Derrek Lee of the Cubs had a resurgent year, hitting .306/.393/.579 for an ISO of .273. He did demonstrate more power to right than Jeter, posting a .284 ISO in 112 attempts. His batting average fell far below Jeter’s though, at .275. In terms of power, sure, he outhit Jeter. But in terms of overall proficiency, it’s all Derek.

Surprisingly, Jason Bay demonstrated good power to right field in 2009. As a right-handed hitter playing half his games at Fenway, clearly he posted better numbers to left field — a .466 ISO, which is nearly, but not quite, Pujolsian. He also posted a .262 ISO to right field, which lags behind Jeter a bit. Like most other hitters, Bay’s batting average to right wasn’t quite up to par, either, at .262, and he also had only 61 plate appearances in which he hit a ball to right field.

You know who killed the ball to right field? Nelson Cruz. He had 80 plate appearances where he hit a ball to right, and posted a .291 batting average and .646 SLG for a .354 ISO. The power came almost exclusively off home runs, as he hit nine to right. His only other extra base hit was a double. But, again, his sample was less than half of Jeter’s.

Among the more important points here is the ability to frequently take the ball the other way. It’s one thing that Jeter posts monstrous rate stats when hitting the ball to the opposite field. It’s quite another that he does it so often. He actually hit four more balls to right last season than he did to left. It makes me wonder why pitchers continue to work him outside.

To end this on a further high note, Jeter’s career numbers when hitting the ball to right field: .373 BA, .954 OPS, .211 ISO. Pretty damn impressive over a 14-year career.

Credit: AP Photo/Kathy Willens

Sherman on Jeter: How about four years and $100M?

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As a heavy snow begins to blanket New York City, there’s little to do until pitchers and catcher report but sit and wait. The Yankees are through with their Hot Stove League wheelin’ and dealin’, and as the equipment trucks head south, a calm descends upon the organization. Yet, this moment of off-season serenity isn’t wanting for musings on the next season.

As we’ve written more than once over the last few months, the Yankees face some contract choices next winter. Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter and Joe Girardi will be free agents, and while it’s easy to see Rivera and Girardi returning on similar deals to those in place now, Jeter remains the big question mark. When it will time to sign his new contract, Jeter will be 36, and even though he is coming off of a 10-year, $189 million, the Yankees may very well have to pay him for what he’s done rather than for what he will do.

Today in The Post, Joel Sherman tackles the topic with a piece on Jeter’s pride. He doesn’t talk about Derek’s pride as arrogance but rather focuses on Jeter’s pride as it impacts his desire to be a better player. The story is one we’ve heard before because Joe discussed it after attending a Brian Cashman WFAN breakfast a while back: The Yanks’ GM challenged Jeter to improve his defense, and Jeter did so. While maintaining his prodigious offensive output, Jeter has morphed from a below-average defender into an average-to-above-average one.

How will this impact the Yanks’ efforts at extending their star short stop? Sherman thinks that Jeter’s drive to stay at the top of his game will lead him to pressure the Yanks into paying up simply producing on the field. Sherman pegs the chances of Jeter’s remaining in pinstripes at 98 percent, and because of A-Rod’s contract, the Post scribe believes Jeter will get four years at $100 million. He would, in that sense, nearly match A-Rod, and the left side of the Yanks’ infield would be making a combined $50 million at a time when both players are over 35.

Does this make sense? Over the last four seasons, Jeter has seen his WAR value fluctuate. According to Fangraphs, he was worth $23.2 million in 2006, $15.5 million in 2007, $16.6 million in 2008 and a whopping $33.4 million in 2009 for a four-year total of $88.7 million. Since he, like the rest of us, isn’t getting any younger, I doubt he can duplicate even that four-year total, and, for example, his CHONE prediction pegs him at $15.4 for 2010.

In the end, the Yankees will pay Derek Jeter simply because he is Derek Jeter. He’s not going to go anywhere, and the team will take care of him. As I said yesterday, though, as the Yanks’ core players age and earn more, the team will have to find young cost-controlled talent to alleviate the payroll pressure. If Derek gets even a four-year, $84-million extension, thus replicating his 2010 salary, the Yanks will be paying their short stop and third baseman a combined $46 million in 2014 when they are 40 and 38 respectively. That’s a bit of a scary thought.

Cashman: Jeter, Mo, Girardi will have to wait

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Mike’s Take: Three prominent Yankees – Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and Joe Girardi – enter the 2010 season in the last year of their contracts, however GM Brian Cashman does not intend to change course and negotiate with any of the three during the season. “I don’t think you can separate one from the other,” said Cashman. “I am not saying they are the same, but the questions will come, ‘If you did one, why didn’t you do the other?’ If this was Kansas City, it would be different — but it’s not.”

Since Cashman took over, the team’s philosophy has been to not negotiate with players until their contracts expire. They did this with Jorge Posada and Mo after 2007, and to be fair, Cashman did the same to himself when his contract was up after the 2008 season. Of course, with Girardi in a lame duck year, the first time the team has the audacity to fall into a slump, he’ll be answering questions about his job security. Then again, how would that be different than any other year?

Ben’s Take: For the Yankees and Brian Cashman, this development is nearly not news. The Yankees haven’t given out a post-arbitration, pre-free agency extension to any player in recent years, and the three lame ducks won’t push the issue.

However, it’s worth a minute to ponder how the Yankees have an A-Rod Problem here. Now, when I say an A-Rod Problem, I don’t mean that in what has become the typical sense of the phrase. The Yankees don’t care about the women A-Rod has dated or the Page 6 headlines he’s made. Rather, his contract is the problem. The Yankees owe A-Rod $206 million in guaranteed salary between now and 2017. Jeter will be making $21 million in his age 36 season this year, and when A-Rod hits his age 36 season in 2012, he’ll be earning $29 million.

For the Yankees, the A-Rod contract will be an albatross. Although annual contracts are creeping ever upwards and the Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols extensions will soon set the market, no one has made more than A-Rod did in 2000 except for A-Rod when the Yanks outbid themselves for his services in 2007. The Yankees, for better or worse, will be paying A-Rod $20 million or more when he’s in his early 40s. Can the team afford to do the same with Derek Jeter?

For Derek, in particular, the issue becomes one of years and money. Because Hank opened his mouth last week, Derek has the upper hand in negotiations, and the Yankees won’t and should not let him walk. But come 2014 and 2015, the Yankees will feature a rather old core of players making a significant amount of money. Finding cost-controlled, good young players is going to become that much more important for the Yankees over the next few years if the team is set on staying at or near a budget.

Hank speaketh and Derek benefiteth

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Since Hank Steinbrenner outbid himself for the services of Alex Rodriguez, the Yanks’ General Partner has been generally silent. He hasn’t tried to erupt at the media, and his brother Hal has emerged as the public face of the franchise. Still, now and then, Hank speaks, and we cringe a bit. Yesterday, that’s exactly what happened.

In an interview with AP on Thursday, Hank spoke generally about the Yankees. He thinks the Yanks are going to repeat; he likes the additions of Nick Johnson and Javier Vazquez; yadda, yadda, yadda. They are the typical comments of a General Partner on the eve of Spring Training.

One thing that Hank said bears a little bit of scrutiny, though. When asked about Derek Jeter’s impossible-to-ignore pending free agency, Hank had a few words to share. “We’ll get into all of that eventually,” Steinbrenner told AP. “Jeter’s place in Yankee history is obvious, so I think you can pretty much assume from there.”

Ah, yes, let’s make some assumptions based upon what Derek Jeter has done over the course of his career. We knew this was coming, and Jeter probably deserves the payday that awaits him. However, it’s tough for the Yankees on a budget to justify this future expenditure to such an extreme degree.

Once or twice this winter, we’ve looked at Derek Jeter’s career and his contract status. We saw him win a fifth World Series ring, and we heard false rumors of an impending three-year extension. We know that Derek Jeter is a shortstop with a career OPS+ of 121 and a batting line of .317/.388/.459 who sits on the edge of 3000 hits. He will get paid.

When Johnny Damon and the Yankees seemingly finalized their divorce, Damon spoke about how he hopes the Yanks don’t treat Jeter the same way they treated him. Of course, that was a bit of hyperbole on Damon’s behalf because the Yanks were never attached to Damon the same way they are connected to Jeter. They won’t throw out Jeter with the bathwater as they did Damon. He will get his due.

The bigger question right now isn’t an “if”; it’s a “should.” The Yankees have millions of dollars committed to Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira. The latter two make up a core of players at the right age playing out their peak years with the Yankees, and A-Rod, while older than we’d like, is still a great player. Now they have to figure out how to approach the old guard as Jeter and Mariano Rivera will be without contracts in 10 months, with Jorge Posada following a year later.

We know that the Yankees will reward these players. We know the team will spend what it takes to keep them around. We know the trio will see the dollars flow their way when the time comes. But the Yankees, as with any other business, operate with a business and with a goal in mind. Does signing Derek Jeter to an above-market deal make sense in that regard? Probably not. Yet, he will get paid. After all, Hank said so.

Can Derek Jeter aim his hits?

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If ballplayers could aim their hits with any consistency, perhaps we’d have seen a few more .400 hitters in baseball history. But, as we’ve learned through years of studying the game, it’s not that easy. Hitters have little reaction time between when the pitcher releases the ball and when the ball crosses the plate. During that time a batter must decide where the ball will cross the plate, the velocity of the pitch, the break of the pitch, and then finally of whether he will swing. And then it’s a matter of hitting a sphere with a cylinder. But you know all this, and you know it makes it difficult for a batter to aim his hit to a particular portion of the field.

A hitter can help his case, of course, by generally going with the pitch. Some hitters seem to do this better than others, and over the past 14 years we’ve had the pleasure of watching Derek Jeter slap outside pitches to right field. When pitchers try to work Jeter inside, he can turn around and pull a ball down the left field line, just to keep them honest. In fact, before 2009 he hit more ground balls and line drives down the left field line than the right.

Today at FanGraphs, Dave Allen examines Jeter’s hit tendencies, specifically ground balls and line drives — the batted ball types that generate the most hits. He uses the following field slices to describe where Jeter hits his ground balls and line drives. The number represents the percentage of all GB and LD hit to that field slice, and the shading represents slugging percentage on those hits, the lighter the lower.

Allen makes a few notations about the difference in 2009:

The worst places to hit a grounder are straight at the second basemen or shortstop, those are the grayest slices and in 2009 Jeter cut down the the percentage of his hits to those two slices by 4% (2B) and 2% (SS). He had more hits right up the middle (25% versus 21%), which are singles and doubles more often than outs.

Again, the improvement comes in Jeter’s bread and butter areas, up the middle and to right field. While Allen noted his up the middle increase, Jeter also increased the percentage of GB and LD he hit between the first and second baseman. This probably played a large part in Jeter’s high BABIP, .369.

Allen follows the above block quote with the following: “I don’t think this is a shift in true talent: I don’t think Jeter is any better at ‘aiming’ his grounders.” I’m not as sure. There isn’t a real way to prove this, so for now all we can do is guess. Jeter did, however, display a more discerning eye in 2009 than he had in the two previous years, increasing his pitches seen per plate appearance. Does a keen batting eye allow a player to better aim his hits?

To the average Yankees fan, with the heavy bias that comes with watching a single team so frequently, Jeter does seem better at aiming his hits than other hitters. In 2009 he seemed exceptional, often jumping on the first pitch of the game and depositing it in the shallow outfield. No, he can’t hit a baseball anywhere at will. But it does appear he embodies the Wee Willie Keeler mantra of “hit it where they ain’t.”

Is Jeter the second greatest shortstop ever?

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In the eyes of Yankee fans, Derek Jeter can do no wrong. Even when it was apparent that his defense at short was detrimental to the team, most stuck by him because of everything he’s done for the franchise. I’m sure many will argue that he’s the greatest shortstop of all time, however David Schoenfield at ESPN ran through all the data, and shows that if Jeter isn’t the second best shortstop in baseball history (behind Honus Wagner), he’s darn close to it. His main competition for the title is Cal Ripken Jr., who of course played an entirely different game than Cap’n Jetes.

For what it’s worth, Ripken’s best seasons were far greater than Jeter’s best seasons. However, if he continues to defy age, Jeter will be right there with Cal at the end of his career.