River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » Derek Jeter » Page 59

Yanks ten over .500 after 12-3 drubbing of Texas

by 51 Comments

For the first few innings of last night’s one-sided Yankee-Ranger game, it seemed as though a back-and-forth affair was in the works. While A.J. Burnett had his strikeout pitch working, Padilla didn’t have much, and both pitchers had allowed a few baserunners while limiting the damage.

The Yankees struck first in the bottom of the second. The Yankees put together four singles, but a baserunning blunder by Jorge Posada cost the Yankees a run. However, Vincente Padilla made up for it with a balk with a runner on third, and then he hit Mark Teixeira to load the bases. Little did anyone realize how important that HBP would be.

In the top of the third, the Rangers got those two runs back, plus one more. A walk, a double and a Nelson Cruz home run gave Texas a 3-2 lead. At that point, A.J. Burnett had given up six hits through 2.2 innings but, with the game on the precipice of disaster, he reeled it back in. He got the last out in the third and breezed through the fourth before turning things over to the offense.

Two walks and a Derek Jeter single tied the game before Mark Teixeira came to bat. For the second time, Vincente Padilla hit his former teammate with a pitch, and Teixeira was livid. On the next play, the Yanks’ first baseman busted up a potential double play with a great take-out slide. The Yanks took the lead, and Teixeira was pumped. A few batters later, Hideki Matsui blasted another home run against the Rangers, increasing the Yankees’ lead to 9-3.

They would tack on three more on an utter blast by Jorge Posada in the bottom of the sixth, but those three would just be icing on the cake. A.J. Burnett didn’t need more than those runs in the fourth, and he cruised through the final few innings en route to his first win at Yankee Stadium.

Burnett gave up eight hits in seven innings today, but he walked just one. While he didn’t have his stuff early on, he was able to limit the damage by striking out eight. Over his last two outings spanning 13 innings, he has racked up 15 and seems ready to hit his pitching stride.

For the Yankees, this game featured a few milestones — one dubious, one not. In the top of the fourth, Jorge Posada tried to nail Elvis Andrus stealing second. Instead, the ball sailed into center field for the Yanks’ first error in three weeks. The Major League record for errorless games comes to rest at 18.

More festive, though, was the run Derek Jeter scored in the bottom of the fourth — the 1,500th run of his career. Only three active players — A-Rod, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Gary Sheffield — have scored more. Just on Monday, Jeter joined Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Stan Musial and Hank Aaron as the only players in baseball history with at least 2600 hits, 200 home runs and 1000 RBI in just 15 seasons. Rarefied air for the captain indeed.

With their win tonight, the Yanks moved ten games over .500 for the first time this year. They are clinging to a one-game lead over the Red Sox who beat Rick Porcello tonight, but the Bombers have the best record in the AL and the second best in the Majors. I like the sound of that.

Has the Damon – Jeter switch worked so far?

by 48 Comments

We aren’t quite through a quarter of the 2009 season, so any serious analysis of the results so far will fall victim to many statistical pitfalls. There’s just not enough data on each player to draw meaningful conclusions at this point. Still, we can always look at statistics as results, rather than leaning on them for predictive value. With this in mind, let’s take a look at the pre-season decision to flip Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter in the batting order. This was a move we advocated just days before Girardi announced it. How has it worked out through the first 39 games?

Many baseball minds wanted to see Jeter in the leadoff spot heading into this year. A few wanted to see it before this season. Derek Jeter profiles as one heckuva leadoff guy: good average, high on base, low slugging. The main reason I brought up the switch back in March was because of an article which extolled Johnny Damon’s amazing ability to avoid the twin killing. As we saw last year, Derek was prone to it. He hit into 24 double plays, a career high, in 668 plate appearances, his career low other than his injury-shortened 2003 and his rookie campaign in 1996. This averages out to a double play roughly every 28 plate appearances.

Contrast this with Damon, who hit into just six double plays in 2008. Of course, he had the advantage of hitting first, so the opportunity didn’t present itself as often as for Jeter, the second hitter. Still, Damon averaged a double play every 104 plate appearances. That’s rather impressive. It’s even more impressive if you use baseball-reference’s GDP stat, which only charges Damon with 5 GDP. The 6 figure comes from FanGraphs.

Part of the reason Jeter grounds into so many double plays is that he has become more apt in recent years to put the ball on the ground. He’s seen a decreased line drive rate over the past few years, but rather than increasing his fly ball total he’s mainly put those once-line-drives on the ground. Last season 58.3 percent of his balls in play were on the ground. He’s done that even more frequently in 2009, at 61.2 percent. While we can’t say for certain, it would seem that Jeter would be even more prone to the double play this year, as he’s putting the ball on the ground more.

Since Jeter hits leadoff, he faces fewer situations where he can ground into a twin killing. His first at bat is a freebie, and after that he needs the bottom of the order to get on base, and not record two outs before doing so, to have a chance at a DP. If I had the data at hand I’d check Jeter’s specific numbers in double play situations. Unfortunately, all we have at hand are the aggregate numbers. Jeter has hit into just three double plays so far in 176 plate appearances, or once every 58 2/3 plate appearances. So far, he’s at an improvement over last season. This is better than even his last season hitting leadoff, 2005, when he grounded into a double play every 43.6 at plate appearances.

What about Damon? He’s been a leadoff hitter his entire career, so has been in a position to avoid double plays. However, as the aforementioned study notes, Damon has been stellar in double play situations, not just aggregate double play numbers. Again, since we don’t have those, we’ll go with what we do have. In 169 plate appearances this season, Johnny Damon has grounded into one double play. Just one. This is quite remarkable, even for Damon. It also means that the Yankees one-two hitters have grounded into four double plays in a combined 345 plate appearances, or one every 86 1/4 PA. Last season they grounded into one every 43 PA.

Again, because we’re not yet a quarter through the season these figures might not have predictive value. So far, though, we can say that the experiment has worked, at least as far as the double play concern goes. It would likewise be foolish to attribute Damon’s hot start to his move in the batting order, but there’s no denying his impact on the team this year. Jeter is seeing positive effects too, as pitchers are throwing him four pitches per plate appearance this year, as opposed to 3.76 last year. In other words, both Damon and Jeter have adapted well to their roles, at least in the early goings.

The idea to check in on the lineup switch issue came from Craig Calcaterra, a/k/a Shyster (though it was from a post on NBC), on the uselessness of lineup switches. He cites the same articles used in our lineup discussions over the off-season — one from Driveline Mechanics and one from Beyond the Boxscore. The main argument they make is that an optimal lineup, by the numbers, only yields about one run over the course of a season. Yet as we see with the Damon/Jeter switch, it can mean so much more than that. How many twin killings have the Yankees avoided by making the move? We can’t say for sure, but given the data we have at this point, it would seem that they’ve avoided a number of them. And that can make a huge difference in how a season plays out.

The Captain returns as CC pitches Yanks to 3-2 win

by 79 Comments

Before Joe Girardi officially filled out his lineup card, there was uncertainty as to whether Derek Jeter would play in last night’s series finale against the Blue Jays. The Captain has been suffering what he calls a sore oblique, never an easy injury for a baseball player. It requires rest to heal. Unfortunately, rest does not fit Derek Jeter’s M.O. He returned to the lineup, though, and came through for the Yanks on more than one occasion.

His first act came in the bottom of the sixth. With Alex Rios on first and two men out, Jose Bautista worked a 2-2 count on CC Sabathia. The hefty lefty had unleashed a barrage of fastballs in the at bat, two hitting 94, one 96, and the latest one 97. On the fifth pitch he pulled the string, dropped to 85 mph. Bautista pulled it toward the hole, but there would be no Pasta Diving on this evening. Jeter laid out and snared the grounder, flipping to Cano to finish the inning.

Then, with the Yanks down 2-1 in the top of the seventh, Jeter was presented with one of those RISP situations in which the Yanks have generally failed this season. Brett Gardner had worked a four-pitch walk off Brian Tallet, his fifth of the night. Girardi called for a hit and run on a 2-1 count, and it couldn’t have gone any better. Frankie grounded one to short, which Marco Scutaro almost certainly would have turned into a double play if he weren’t out of position. He was, the ball squeaked through, and to the plate strolled Derek Jeter with two on and none out.

After taking a strike out the outside edge from new pitcher Jason Frasor, The Captain did what he does best. On a 94 mph fastball on the inside edge, Jeter did his inside-oot (as the Blue Jays broadcasters said) thing, lofting a ball over John McDonald’s head and into shallow right for a game-tying single. It was Jeterian in every sense of the term. Unfortunately, the 2-3-4 hitters couldn’t plate the RISP. The Yanks would have to save the comeback for another inning.

Leave it to Godzilla. Exactly one week after he hit a solo home run to tie the game against the Rays, he did the exact same thing. Except this time it put the Yanks on top. On a 2-2 count, Matsui took a Jesse Carlson slider, the first he’d thrown in the at bat, over the right-center field wall, giving the Yankees a 3-2 lead. It was Matsui’s first hit since the series opener in Baltimore last Friday, and it couldn’t have come at a better time.

CC Sabathia wasn’t quite as good as his last start, but eight innings, two runs is the mark of an ace, even if he didn’t get there in the most efficient fashion. Only one of his four walks came back to haunt him, but for a while that run loomed large, as it gave the Jays a 2-1 advantage. That inning, the bottom of the fifth, could have been a lot worse had Brett Gardner and Frankie Cervelli not hooked up to get Rod Barajas trying to score on a John McDonald single. We’ve seen Gardner try to uncork a throw or two this year, usually with disastrous results. On this one he took his time, throwing a strike in time to get Barajas and keep the Jays from extending the lead.

Sabathia took care of the rest, getting Marco Scutaro to ground out on the first pitch, ending the threat. True to form, CC powered through three more frames, laying his own bridge to Mo. Like Mo of old, he came in and mowed down the Jays, throwing six of his 11 pitches for strikes and retiring the Jays in order.

While the Yanks’ inability to capitalize on Tallet’s five walks was a bit frustrating, it’s tough to complain about this win. It was a close game wherein the Yankees scored a run in three separate innings. Whereas last week we talked about how the Yankees were finding ways to lose, today they found another way to win: by manufacturing a run or two and relying on some timely hitting. The win brought the Yanks back to .500, a mark they hopefully won’t see the rest of the season (though this isn’t the first time I’ve typed that).

The Yanks head back home tomorrow night for a four-game set against the Twinkies. It’s the disappointing Phil Hughes vs. the disappointing Francisco Liriano. I’m betting one of them won’t disappoint.

Another Jeter-less night does not bode well

by 25 Comments

The game thread won’t be here for another hour or so, but we’re jumping in with an early note. Derek Jeter will not be in the lineup for the second straight night. As we found out yesterday, he has a sore oblique, not a light issue for baseball players. He played through it over the weekend, collecting three hits over 14 at bats, but after the off-day on Monday it was apparently too much to bear on Tuesday. Ditto today. Word is that he hopes to play tomorrow, but we heard that yesterday, and will likely hear it again when he’s out of the lineup tomorrow. It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see Jeter hit the DL retroactive to May 11, meaning he couldn’t be back until May 26. The Red Sox faced the same issue with Kevin Youkilis last week, as he strained his left oblique on May 4 against the Yankees. He was just placed on the DL today.

Open Thread: We Play

by 121 Comments

Young JeterThat young whippersnapper is one Mr. Derek Sanderson Jeter, before he got all grow’d up and clutchy, and comes courtesy of his photo gallery at We Play. We Play is a website the Cap’n founded along with Peyton Manning and LeBron James to promote youth athletics. Jeter was on Good Morning America this morning to promote the organization, and it was your basic ABC puff piece until Robin Roberts broke out the A-Rod steroid questions. Parade, rain. Rain, parade.

If you want to learn more about We Play, give the site a visit via the link above. Whenever a superstar player uses his popularity for the betterment of kids, it’s a great thing. Well done Jetes. (h/t Deadspin)

Here’s your open thread for the night. The only local team in action tonight is the Knickerbockers, who are out in Denver. American Idol is also on, if that’s your cup of tea. Good thing I have lots of reading to catch up on. Anything goes here, just be nice.

Oh, and in case you need a little comic relief, Sidney Ponson has a spot in the Royals’ rotation all but wrapped up. (h/t jsbrendog)

Fielding Bible: Jeter’s defense revisited

by 73 Comments

A few weeks ago the folks at ACTA Sports were kind enough to send along a copy of The Fielding Bible Volume II, John Dewan’s study on defensive metrics. Instead of reviewing the entire 400-page tome in one shot, I thought I’d address a number of issues throughout the week. We’ll start off with a topic which has been beaten into the ground over the past few years: Derek Jeter’s defense. As it turns out, his Gold Gloves might be justified.

This isn’t to say that Jeter’s range is any better than we’ve come to understand. He still has trouble ranging to his left, and that’s probably not going to improve. Yet he’s not a complete black hole out there. As it turns out, Jeter ranked best in the majors last year in Defensive Misplays, a visual metric developed by Bill James which attempts to succeed where errors fail in determining poor defensive plays. Says James:

A defensive misplay is a very specific observation of a very narrowly defined event, created in such a way as to keep the scorer’s use of judgment to an absolute minimum.

An error is based on what “ought” to happen in the mind of an official scorer. A-Rod should have fielded that cleanly; Robinson Cano should have made a better throw to first. James attempts to strip the subjective observation of the scorer and create a defined set of circumstances which will determine a defensive misplay. There are 54 different types of defensive misplays. Here’s his example:

Failing to anticipate the wall — Outfielder goes to the outfield wall, allowing a ball to bounce over his head back toward the infield, allowing a runner or runners to take bases which they might not have been able to take had the fielder turned and played the ball off the wall.

The scorer has to ask himself only two questions:

1) Did the outfielder go to the wall in an effort to catch the ball, and
2) Did the ball bounce over his head back toward the infield?
…
The scorer does not ask himself “Did the fielder have a real chance to catch the ball?” or “Should the fielder have chased the ball to the wall in that situation? or “Should an ordinary fielder have known that he could not catch the ball at the wall?” or anything like that. It’s two simple questions: Did he chase the ball to the wall, and did the ball bounce over his head back toward the infield?

While James attempts to separate subjective judgment from objective observation, he’s not always successful in The Fielding Bible. I’ll agree with Mitchel Lichtman’s critique: “However, as you read more about his Defensive Misplays (DM’s), it becomes clear that many of them are very subjective, or at least not as objective as he claims DM’s are in general.” Still, it tries to add more context to the idea of an error, beyond the official scorer determining that a player messed up.

(Oh, and you’ll never guess who led the league in the above-cited defensive misplay. Yes, it was Bobby Abreu, in a tie with — wait for it — Nate McLouth.)

Jeter’s strength, according to James’s system, is his ability to cleanly field balls he reaches. He led all shortstops last year with just 17 defensive misplays in 1,259 innings at short. Even when you count errors — which James claims were not counted in Defensive Misplays, so there’s no doubling up — Jeter comes out as the best shortstop in the majors.

This puts Jeter’s Gold Gloves in a bit better context. After all, it’s easier to see plays that were made than those that weren’t. It might not be easy for an observer to see all the balls Jeter doesn’t get to. Routine grounder through the hole for a single, one might think. That’s an easy observation to make, since it’s difficult to determine whether Jeter should have gotten to the ball or, even more difficultly, if one of Jeter’s peers would have cleanly fielded the grounder. Because he’s so good on the balls he does get to, that’s translated into playing good defense, hence the Gold Gloves.

When it comes to range, we know that Jeter doesn’t get much respect. If you check out his UZR you’ll see that since 2003 he’s ranged from slightly below average to freaking atrocious (namely 2005 and 2007). Last year he was just below average by that metric. Since this is a Fielding Bible review, we’ll also look at Dewan’s plus/minus system. That one’s a bit harsher on Jeter, rating him a -9 (-8 for fielding, -1 for his double play turning). That puts him fourth lowest among qualifying shortstops, besting only Yuniesky Betancourt (another guy who reputedly plays good D), Jeff Keppinger, and David Eckstein. During the three years from 2006 through 2008, Jeter ranks dead last at -50 — and it’s not even close.

The difference between the two systems is something we should certainly explore further. While Dewan had Jeter in the cellar in terms of defensive range, UZR was a bit kinder in 2008, ranking him 11th in the majors, ahead of Jose Reyes. More notably, UZR has Jeter ahead of Christian Guzman, who ranked fifth in Dewan’s plus/minus system. Clearly, there are flaws in defensive metrics. Geoff Baker, beat writer for The Seattle Times, has a comprehensive and intelligent look at defensive metrics. I highly recommend the read.

Does Jeter’s ability to avoid misplays compensate for his lack of range? It’s tough to say, especially when we’re working with inherently flawed statistics. I will agree with Steve Lombardi’s conclusion: “In a nutshell, it’s his ability to avoid “Defensive Misplays” that has enabled Derek Jeter to win Gold Glove awards in the past. And, it’s probably the same reason why the Yankees haven’t moved him off shortstop yet.” That and ego, of course.

We’ll close this out with a scouting take on Jeter, also from The Fielding Bible, just to even out all this statistical talk:

Then there is the signature Jeter play, when he fields a backhander in the hole and makes his patented jump-throw. Jeter still excels at this play, but it disguises the fact that he does it because he lacks the arm strength to plant his feet and throw. His arm also causes him to play more shallow than other shortstops, cutting down on his range.

The last comment about playing shallow makes plenty of sense. Certainly, playing shallow would make it tough for Jeter to get to those up the middle balls. Regarding the first observation about the jump-throw, it might sound intuitively incorrect. You can’t make as strong a throw while you’re in the air, right? No, you can’t, but you can also get rid of it quicker. What Dewan means here is that Jeter needs to do the jump-throw, because it would take him additional time to stop, plant, and make a strong throw. Because his arm isn’t as strong, he needs a quick release. It’s along the lines of Johnny Damon’s arm not costing the Yanks any runs — a topic we’ll visit later in the week.

You can get The Fielding Bible–Volume II from Amazon.com for $16.29. That’s our Amazon Associate code, so if you buy the book from that link you’ll kick us a few pennies.

Open Thread: Inside the new Stadium

by 105 Comments

The view from center field. (Photo courtesy of WCBS Sports Director Jared Max/WFAN)

In one week from tonight, Mike and I will have seen our first game at new Yankee Stadium. This afternoon, we nabbed a pair of Grandstand tickets off of StubHub for Saturday’s exhibition game in the Bronx against the Cubs. (Joe is flying in that day from a Vegas trip and couldn’t make it with us.) We’ll have a full post up about it then.

In the meantime, take a look at this photo set from WFAN.com. The CBS Sports Director Jared Max had the run of the stadium with his camera this week, and the pictures look great. We’ve got field view shots of the whole park, glimpses of Tommy Bahamas and the ever-popular Garlic Fries and some handy exit signs.

The photos also allow us to see some of the quirks and intricacies of the new park. For example, the plate is closer to the backstop than at old Yankee Stadium. So pitchers will lose a few foul pop outs. There’s still not a lot of foul territory in the outfield either.

While the Yanks are rumored to be keeping the overplayed Y.M.C.A. dance, on a happier note, the organ made the trip across the street. Anyway, poke around those photo sets. From wider concourses to more legroom, the park looks like a baseball playground.

Jeter Day-to-Day with Pinky Bruise
Joe will have a longer game recap at midnight with some thoughts on the CF battle and the long reliever debate, but I wanted to drop in a quick injury update. Yankees Captain and starting short stop Derek Jeter left today’s game with an injured lefty pinky knuckle. He bruised his finger in a first-inning collision with Braves’ first baseman Greg Norton but remained in the game. He is listed as day-to-day and plans to play tomorrow.

Anyway, here’s your open thread. You know what to do.